Football · Bulgaria Second League · 25/07, 19:00

Prediction: FK Fratria vs Marek Dupnitsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

FK Fratria1.71

Marek Dupnitsa0.61

1X2

64% 24% 12%

FK Fratria Draw Marek Dupnitsa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Fratria 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLDWWD

Marek Dupnitsa 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDWLL

Head-to-head

FK Fratria 1–1–2 Marek Dupnitsa (4 last)

FK Fratria1-1Marek Dupnitsa
Marek Dupnitsa1-3FK Fratria
FK Fratria0-1Marek Dupnitsa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Fratria 1552 · Marek Dupnitsa 1528

	FK Fratria	Draw	Marek Dupnitsa
Our model	63%	25%	12%
Market	64%	23%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Marek Dupnitsa: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Fratria	Marek Dupnitsa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X3.90

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +4’	1.40	3.90	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Fratria 1–1–2 Marek Dupnitsa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	1-1 HT 1-0	Marek Dupnitsa
16/08/25 Bulgaria Second League	Marek Dupnitsa	1-3 HT 0-1	FK Fratria
03/05/25 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	0-1 HT 0-0	Marek Dupnitsa
03/11/24 Bulgaria Second League	Marek Dupnitsa	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Fratria

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chernomorets Burgas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Fratria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pirin Blagoevgrad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportist Svoge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yantra Gabrovo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nesebar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CSKA Sofia II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ludogorets Razgrad II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Marek Dupnitsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Beroe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vihren Sandanski	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rilski Sportist	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartak Pleven	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Fratria	Marek Dupnitsa
Pirin Blagoevgrad	3-0 W	0-0 D
Belasitsa	3-0 W	2-1 W
Dunav Ruse	2-2 D	0-0 D
Vihren Sandanski	1-2 L	1-0 W
CSKA Sofia II	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Fratria

DWWDDLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Farul Constanta Club Friendly List	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/05	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
04/05	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
26/04	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
16/04	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/04	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
28/03	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/03	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D

Marek Dupnitsa

WWDWDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	CSKA Sofia Club Friendly List	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
27/06	Septemvri Sofia Club Friendly List	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
23/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/05	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
11/05	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
02/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
25/04	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
17/04	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
10/04	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
05/04	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Fratria vs Marek Dupnitsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Fratria win (64%). Probabilities: FK Fratria 64%, draw 24%, Marek Dupnitsa 12%.

How many goals are expected in FK Fratria vs Marek Dupnitsa?

The model expects 2.33 goals (FK Fratria 1.71 · Marek Dupnitsa 0.61), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Fratria vs Marek Dupnitsa?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.