Football · Bulgaria Second League · 04/08, 17:30
Prediction: Montana vs Nesebar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Montana2.48
Nesebar0.73
1X2
Montana
Draw
Nesebar
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Montana
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Nesebar
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montana
4–1–1
Nesebar
(6 last)
- Nesebar1-3Montana
- Montana2-0Nesebar
- Nesebar1-2Montana
- Montana3-1Nesebar
- Nesebar1-1Montana
- Montana1-3Nesebar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montana 1455 · Nesebar 1584
| Montana | Draw | Nesebar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 75% | 18% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nesebar (rating 1455 vs 1584).
- H2H favours Montana: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montana | Nesebar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.9 | 4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 78/11/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montana 4–1–1 Nesebar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/25 Bulgaria Second League | Nesebar | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Montana |
| 28/09/24 Bulgaria Second League | Montana | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Nesebar |
| 23/05/19 Bulgaria Second League | Nesebar | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Montana |
| 26/11/18 Bulgaria B PFG | Montana | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Nesebar |
| 31/03/18 Bulgaria Second League | Nesebar | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Montana |
| 09/09/17 Bulgaria Second League | Montana | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Nesebar |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chernomorets Burgas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Spartak Pleven | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Marek Dupnitsa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Beroe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Montana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Sportist Svoge | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Vihren Sandanski | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | FK Fratria | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Rilski Sportist | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Yantra Gabrovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 | Nesebar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 11/07 | Slavia Sofia Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 18/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 01/05 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 16/04 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
Nesebar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/07 | Spartak Varna Club Friendly List |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Asenovets Bulgaria Third League |
4-1 | 8-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Zagorets Bulgaria Third League |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Spartak Plovdiv Bulgaria Third League |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/05 | Maritsa Plovdiv Bulgaria Third League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Yambol 1915 Bulgaria Third League |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Rozova Dolina Bulgaria Third League |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | Atletik Kuklen Bulgaria Third League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | FK Gigant Saedinie Bulgaria Third League |
3-0 | 7-2 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montana vs Nesebar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montana win (75%). Probabilities: Montana 75%, draw 17%, Nesebar 8%.
How many goals are expected in Montana vs Nesebar?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Montana 2.48 · Nesebar 0.73), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Montana vs Nesebar?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.