Football · Bulgaria Second League · 02/08, 19:00

Prediction: FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Vihren Sandanski

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1.42

Vihren Sandanski1.15

1X2

42% 28% 29%

FC Hebar Pazardzhik Draw Vihren Sandanski

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWDLLL

Vihren Sandanski 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWWWDW

Head-to-head

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 2–2 Vihren Sandanski (4 last)

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1-0Vihren Sandanski
Vihren Sandanski3-2FC Hebar Pazardzhik
FC Hebar Pazardzhik3-1Vihren Sandanski
Vihren Sandanski4-0FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1449 · Vihren Sandanski 1532

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Draw	Vihren Sandanski
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vihren Sandanski (rating 1449 vs 1532).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Vihren Sandanski
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +1’	2.10	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 2–0–2 Vihren Sandanski

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Bulgaria Second League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-0 HT 1-0	Vihren Sandanski
20/09/25 Bulgaria Second League	Vihren Sandanski	3-2 HT 2-2	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
05/09/18 Bulgaria Cup	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3-1 HT 0-1	Vihren Sandanski
13/09/17 Bulgaria Cup	Vihren Sandanski	4-0 HT 0-0	FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
2	Spartak Pleven	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Beroe	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	Marek Dupnitsa	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Montana	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
6	Sportist Svoge	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Chernomorets Burgas	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Pirin Blagoevgrad	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	CSKA Sofia II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ludogorets Razgrad II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Vihren Sandanski	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Rilski Sportist	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	FK Fratria	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Yantra Gabrovo	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
18	Nesebar	1	0	0	1	1	5	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Vihren Sandanski
Sportist Svoge	0-1 L	4-1 W
Marek Dupnitsa	1-1 D	0-1 L
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1-0 W	2-2 D
Chernomorets Burgas	1-3 L	0-2 L
Pirin Blagoevgrad	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

WDLLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/06	KF Ballkani Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
23/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
04/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
27/04	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
22/04	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
16/04	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
09/04	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-2	4-3	5	4	W

Vihren Sandanski

WLLDLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/05	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
04/05	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
25/04	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-0	9	6	W
16/04	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
10/04	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
04/04	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-2	8	4	D
28/03	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
21/03	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
15/03	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Vihren Sandanski?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Hebar Pazardzhik win (42%). Probabilities: FC Hebar Pazardzhik 42%, draw 28%, Vihren Sandanski 29%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Vihren Sandanski?

The model expects 2.57 goals (FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1.42 · Vihren Sandanski 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Vihren Sandanski?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.