Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 26/07, 22:00

Prediction: Mushuc Runa vs Club Atletico Libertad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Mushuc Runa1.82

Club Atletico Libertad0.9

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Mushuc Runa Draw Club Atletico Libertad

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mushuc Runa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWLLWD

Club Atletico Libertad 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLLDWLW

Head-to-head

Mushuc Runa 2–2–2 Club Atletico Libertad (6 last)

Club Atletico Libertad2-2Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa1-2Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad2-1Mushuc Runa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mushuc Runa 1459 · Club Atletico Libertad 1503

	Mushuc Runa	Draw	Club Atletico Libertad
Our model	58%	25%	17%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Libertad (rating 1459 vs 1503).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mushuc Runa	Club Atletico Libertad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	1.1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.60▲	Bet365 1.60
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:36 +1’	1.57	3.70	5.50
15:30 +7’	1.57	3.75▲	5.75▲
16:21 +15’	1.60▲	3.70▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mushuc Runa 2–2–2 Club Atletico Libertad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	2-2 HT 1-2	Mushuc Runa
09/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-2 HT 1-1	Club Atletico Libertad
19/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	2-1 HT 1-0	Mushuc Runa
26/09/24 Ecuador Cup	Mushuc Runa	2-1 HT 1-0	Club Atletico Libertad
03/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	2-2 HT 1-2	Mushuc Runa
02/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	2-1 HT 0-1	Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	21	17	1	3	52	20	52
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	21	10	5	6	33	19	35
3	SD Aucas	21	10	5	6	23	21	35
4	Barcelona Guayaquil	21	9	7	5	23	16	34
5	Macara	21	9	5	7	24	21	32
6	LDU Quito	21	8	5	8	20	17	29
7	Leones FC	21	7	7	7	22	21	28
8	Emelec	21	7	7	7	18	24	28
9	Deportivo Cuenca	21	8	4	9	19	26	28
10	Guayaquil City	21	7	6	8	19	23	27
11	Orense	21	7	5	9	25	29	26
12	Mushuc Runa	21	6	7	8	27	31	25
13	Club Atletico Libertad	21	6	6	9	19	26	24
14	Tecnico Universitario	21	7	2	12	19	24	23
15	Delfin SC	21	6	5	10	13	20	23
16	Manta FC	21	3	5	13	8	26	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mushuc Runa	Club Atletico Libertad
Emelec	1-1 D	1-1 D
Independiente del Valle	1-4 L	3-2 W
Leones FC	1-3 L	1-3 L
LDU Quito	1-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Libertad (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mushuc Runa

LLDDLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
20/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
14/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
11/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
06/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	1	2	W
03/06	Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
31/05	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
23/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/05	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
12/05	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-3	5	7	L

Club Atletico Libertad

DLDWLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
15/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
30/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
23/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	3-2	1	6	W
20/05	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
16/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
10/05	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mushuc Runa vs Club Atletico Libertad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mushuc Runa win (58%). Probabilities: Mushuc Runa 58%, draw 25%, Club Atletico Libertad 17%.

How many goals are expected in Mushuc Runa vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Mushuc Runa 1.82 · Club Atletico Libertad 0.9), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.