Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 02/08, 02:00
Prediction: Emelec vs SD Aucas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2Total
Emelec1
SD Aucas1
1X2
Emelec
Draw
SD Aucas
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Emelec
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
SD Aucas
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Emelec
1–2–3
SD Aucas
(6 last)
- SD Aucas2-0Emelec
- Emelec0-2SD Aucas
- SD Aucas0-0Emelec
- SD Aucas1-2Emelec
- Emelec0-1SD Aucas
- Emelec0-0SD Aucas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emelec 1516 · SD Aucas 1515
| Emelec | Draw | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Market | 34% | 31% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours SD Aucas: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Emelec | SD Aucas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.2 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 1–2–3 SD Aucas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 23/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-2 HT 0-1 | SD Aucas |
| 19/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 31/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 12/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-1 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
| 07/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-0 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 22 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 22 | 55 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | Macara | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 35 |
| 4 | SD Aucas | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 25 | 35 |
| 5 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 17 | 34 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 17 | 32 |
| 7 | Leones FC | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 31 |
| 8 | Emelec | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cuenca | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 28 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 27 |
| 11 | Tecnico Universitario | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 24 | 26 |
| 12 | Orense | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 32 | 26 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 25 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 23 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 27 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Emelec | SD Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Independiente del Valle | 1-6 L | 0-3 L |
| Orense | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Macara | 2-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Manta FC | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Emelec (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emelec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 20/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 13/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Daquilema FC Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 16/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emelec vs SD Aucas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (34%). Probabilities: Emelec 34%, draw 32%, SD Aucas 34%.
How many goals are expected in Emelec vs SD Aucas?
The model expects 2 goals (Emelec 1 · SD Aucas 1), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Emelec vs SD Aucas?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.