Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/08, 23:30

Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Tecnico Universitario

Team pages: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador · Tecnico Universitario

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.84

Tecnico Universitario0.74

1X2

63% 23% 14%

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Draw Tecnico Universitario

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLLWWW

Tecnico Universitario 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 3–2–1 Tecnico Universitario (6 last)

Tecnico Universitario0-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-0Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario1-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Tecnico Universitario2-0Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-2Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-2Tecnico Universitario

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1542 · Tecnico Universitario 1455

	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	Draw	Tecnico Universitario
Our model	62%	24%	13%
Market	63%	23%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1542 vs 1455).
H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	Tecnico Universitario
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.46
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.24 ★
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +4’	1.45	4.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:15	1.44	4.22	6.33
01:17	1.46▲	4.24▲	6.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 3–2–1 Tecnico Universitario

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	0-2 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
25/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-0 HT 1-0	Tecnico Universitario
03/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	1-1 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
04/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	2-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
19/09/24 Ecuador Cup	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-2 HT 2-0	Tecnico Universitario
14/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	3-2 HT 1-1	Tecnico Universitario

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	21	10	5	6	33	19	35
3	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
4	SD Aucas	22	10	5	7	24	25	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Emelec	21	7	7	7	18	24	28
9	Deportivo Cuenca	21	8	4	9	19	26	28
10	Guayaquil City	21	7	6	8	19	23	27
11	Tecnico Universitario	22	8	2	12	20	24	26
12	Orense	22	7	5	10	27	32	26
13	Mushuc Runa	21	6	7	8	27	31	25
14	Club Atletico Libertad	21	6	6	9	19	26	24
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	22	3	5	14	8	27	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona Guayaquil	2-1 W	1-0 W
LDU Quito	1-0 W	1-2 L
Leones FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Orense	2-1 W	2-1 W
Independiente del Valle	0-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

LDWWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	11	L
06/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
01/06	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
29/05	El Nacional Ecuador Cup	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
23/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
16/05	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador Super Cup	0-2	0-3	5	8	L

Tecnico Universitario

LWLWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
22/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
19/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	10	9	L
15/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
11/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
07/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
02/06	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
29/05	Juventud Italiana Ecuador Cup	0-1	0-2	1	10	L
24/05	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/05	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	1	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Tecnico Universitario?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (63%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 63%, draw 23%, Tecnico Universitario 14%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Tecnico Universitario?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.84 · Tecnico Universitario 0.74), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Tecnico Universitario?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.