Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 26/07, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Deportivo Cuenca1.16

Emelec0.95

1X2

40% 32% 29%

Deportivo Cuenca Draw Emelec

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Cuenca 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLDLL

Emelec 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWDDWLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Cuenca 3–1–2 Emelec (6 last)

Emelec0-2Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca5-1Emelec
Emelec3-1Deportivo Cuenca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Cuenca 1472 · Emelec 1510

	Deportivo Cuenca	Draw	Emelec
Our model	39%	32%	28%
Market	40%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Cuenca: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Cuenca	Emelec
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:36 +1’	2.15	3.00	3.50
09:36 +3’	2.25▲	3.00	3.30▼
10:47 +1’	2.35▲	3.00	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Cuenca 3–1–2 Emelec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	0-2 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cuenca
20/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	5-1 HT 2-0	Emelec
04/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	3-1 HT 2-0	Deportivo Cuenca
11/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cuenca
19/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	0-1 HT 0-1	Emelec
05/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	0-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Cuenca

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	21	17	1	3	52	20	52
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	21	10	5	6	33	19	35
3	SD Aucas	21	10	5	6	23	21	35
4	Barcelona Guayaquil	21	9	7	5	23	16	34
5	Macara	21	9	5	7	24	21	32
6	LDU Quito	21	8	5	8	20	17	29
7	Leones FC	21	7	7	7	22	21	28
8	Emelec	21	7	7	7	18	24	28
9	Deportivo Cuenca	21	8	4	9	19	26	28
10	Guayaquil City	21	7	6	8	19	23	27
11	Orense	21	7	5	9	25	29	26
12	Mushuc Runa	21	6	7	8	27	31	25
13	Club Atletico Libertad	21	6	6	9	19	26	24
14	Tecnico Universitario	21	7	2	12	19	24	23
15	Delfin SC	21	6	5	10	13	20	23
16	Manta FC	21	3	5	13	8	26	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Cuenca	Emelec
Macara	0-3 L	2-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-2 L	1-0 W
Barcelona Guayaquil	0-2 L	0-0 D
Delfin SC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Emelec (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Cuenca

DDLWDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
18/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
16/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
12/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
05/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
02/06	CD La Union Ecuador Cup	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
31/05	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	7	W
27/05	Santos Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-3	4	6	L
24/05	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
20/05	Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana	1-2	2-2	3	4	D

Emelec

DDDWWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
20/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	1-6	0	2	L
17/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
01/06	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/05	Daquilema FC Ecuador Cup	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
18/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
10/05	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	11	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Cuenca win (40%). Probabilities: Deportivo Cuenca 40%, draw 32%, Emelec 29%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Deportivo Cuenca 1.16 · Emelec 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.