Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 25/07, 17:30

Prediction: Leevon PPK vs Skanstes SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Leevon PPK2.12

Skanstes SK1.15

1X2

59% 21% 19%

Leevon PPK Draw Skanstes SK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Leevon PPK 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWWWWW

Skanstes SK 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Leevon PPK 3–2–1 Skanstes SK (6 last)

Skanstes SK1-2Leevon PPK
Skanstes SK1-1Leevon PPK
Leevon PPK4-2Skanstes SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leevon PPK 1593 · Skanstes SK 1432

	Leevon PPK	Draw	Skanstes SK
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	60%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leevon PPK (rating 1593 vs 1432).
H2H favours Leevon PPK: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leevon PPK	Skanstes SK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.7	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.33

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +12’	1.50	4.33	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leevon PPK 3–2–1 Skanstes SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	1-2 HT 1-1	Leevon PPK
04/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	1-1 HT 1-1	Leevon PPK
23/05/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	4-2 HT 4-0	Skanstes SK
21/09/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	3-0 HT 3-0	Leevon PPK
21/06/24 Latvia Cup	Leevon PPK	1-1 HT 1-0	Skanstes SK
19/05/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	2-0 HT 1-0	Skanstes SK

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	13	11	1	1	46	11	34
2	Valmiera FC	13	10	2	1	35	12	32
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	13	8	4	1	26	12	28
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	13	8	3	2	22	16	27
5	JDFS Alberts	13	7	2	4	28	21	23
6	Marupes SC	13	6	1	6	22	19	19
7	Riga FC II	13	6	1	6	21	23	19
8	SK Super Nova II	13	5	4	4	20	19	19
9	Skanstes SK	13	4	1	8	20	27	13
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	13	3	2	8	18	31	11
11	JFK Ventspils	13	2	4	7	16	23	10
12	RFS II	13	2	3	8	15	28	9
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	13	1	4	8	13	33	7
14	Rezeknes FA	13	1	2	10	10	37	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leevon PPK	Skanstes SK
JFK Ventspils	2-1 W	0-3 L
RFS II	2-1 W	4-0 W
Riga FC II	3-2 W	2-0 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	4-1 W	0-2 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-0 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Skanstes SK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Leevon PPK

WWWDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
16/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	7	W
10/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	3-2	9	8	W
02/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
26/04	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-2	3-2	11	7	W
18/04	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
12/04	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
28/03	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
22/03	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
08/11	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-2	5	3	W

Skanstes SK

LWWLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
11/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-3	10	4	L
04/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
28/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-2	3	1	W
14/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-2	7	7	L
30/05	Valmiera FC Latvia Cup	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
24/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	7	2	L
10/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	4-0	6	3	W
04/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/04	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leevon PPK vs Skanstes SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leevon PPK win (59%). Probabilities: Leevon PPK 59%, draw 21%, Skanstes SK 19%.

How many goals are expected in Leevon PPK vs Skanstes SK?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Leevon PPK 2.12 · Skanstes SK 1.15), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Leevon PPK vs Skanstes SK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.