Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 03/08, 17:30

Prediction: FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs JDFS Alberts

Team pages: FK Tukums 2000/TSS II · JDFS Alberts

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.08Total

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1.35

JDFS Alberts2.73

1X2

16% 19% 66%

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Draw JDFS Alberts

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLLWL

JDFS Alberts 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLWLWD

Head-to-head

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 0–1–5 JDFS Alberts (6 last)

JDFS Alberts6-1FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
JDFS Alberts4-3FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-2JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts4-1FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-4JDFS Alberts
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II2-2JDFS Alberts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1433 · JDFS Alberts 1537

	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	Draw	JDFS Alberts
Our model	16%	18%	66%
Market	16%	19%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 4.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JDFS Alberts (rating 1433 vs 1537).
H2H favours JDFS Alberts: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	JDFS Alberts
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 3.2	2.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.75

21.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +6’	5.75	4.75	1.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 0–1–5 JDFS Alberts

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	6-1 HT 2-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
25/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	4-3 HT 2-2	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
29/06/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-2 HT 1-1	JDFS Alberts
19/10/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	4-1 HT 1-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
30/06/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-4 HT 0-1	JDFS Alberts
01/11/23 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	2-2 HT 1-1	JDFS Alberts

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	15	12	2	1	40	13	38
2	Metta/LU	15	12	2	1	57	13	38
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	15	10	3	2	26	18	33
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	15	9	5	1	30	13	32
5	JDFS Alberts	14	7	3	4	29	22	24
6	Marupes SC	15	7	1	7	26	24	22
7	Riga FC II	15	6	2	7	23	28	20
8	SK Super Nova II	15	5	5	5	21	23	20
9	Skanstes SK	15	5	1	9	25	31	16
10	RFS II	15	3	3	9	21	33	12
11	JFK Ventspils	14	2	5	7	17	24	11
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	14	3	2	9	18	40	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	14	1	4	9	16	38	7
14	Rezeknes FA	15	1	2	12	12	41	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	JDFS Alberts
Metta/LU	0-9 L	1-4 L
SK Super Nova II	1-3 L	1-1 D
Rezeknes FA	4-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JDFS Alberts (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

LLWDLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-6	0-9	0	0	L
20/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
27/06	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
14/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-4	9	1	L
31/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-6	–	–	L
24/05	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
16/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
09/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-2	3	1	L
02/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-4	5	3	L

JDFS Alberts

LWWWDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	3-1	12	2	W
04/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
27/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	7	4	W
20/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia Cup	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
13/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
31/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	6-1	–	–	W
27/05	Iecava Latvia Cup	3-0	5-0	–	–	W
24/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	3	2	W
16/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs JDFS Alberts?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JDFS Alberts win (66%). Probabilities: FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 16%, draw 19%, JDFS Alberts 66%.

How many goals are expected in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs JDFS Alberts?

The model expects 4.08 goals (FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.35 · JDFS Alberts 2.73), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs JDFS Alberts?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.