Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: Riga FC II vs Metta/LU

Team pages: Riga FC II · Metta/LU

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Riga FC II1.18

Metta/LU3.02

1X2

11% 15% 74%

Riga FC II Draw Metta/LU

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Riga FC II 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Metta/LU 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Riga FC II 0–1 Metta/LU (1 last)

Metta/LU2-0Riga FC II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Riga FC II 1496 · Metta/LU 1629

	Riga FC II	Draw	Metta/LU
Our model	11%	15%	74%
Market	11%	15%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metta/LU (rating 1496 vs 1629).
High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Riga FC II	Metta/LU
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	4.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	2.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	90/0/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	4.7 / 9.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

18.00

X6.00

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.98

2 (-2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +9’	8.00	6.00	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC II 0–0–1 Metta/LU

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Metta/LU	2-0 HT 1-0	Riga FC II

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	14	12	1	1	55	11	37
2	Valmiera FC	14	11	2	1	38	12	35
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	14	9	3	2	24	17	30
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	14	8	5	1	27	13	29
5	JDFS Alberts	14	7	3	4	29	22	24
6	Marupes SC	14	7	1	6	24	20	22
7	SK Super Nova II	14	5	5	4	21	20	20
8	Riga FC II	14	6	1	7	21	26	19
9	Skanstes SK	14	4	1	9	21	29	13
10	RFS II	14	3	3	8	20	31	12
11	JFK Ventspils	14	2	5	7	17	24	11
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	14	3	2	9	18	40	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	14	1	4	9	16	38	7
14	Rezeknes FA	14	1	2	11	11	39	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Riga FC II	Metta/LU
SK Super Nova II	2-1 W	7-3 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	2-0 W	9-0 W
Marupes SC	0-4 L	4-0 W
Skanstes SK	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Metta/LU (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Riga FC II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
19/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	5	5	W
04/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/06	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
14/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
23/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-4	3	4	L
10/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
04/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	12	2	L
26/04	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-2	6	4	W

Metta/LU

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	6-0	9-0	14	0	W
18/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
10/07	SK Speks Latvia Cup	0-1	3-1	14	4	W
04/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	10	2	W
28/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
20/06	FK Kekava/Auda Latvia Cup	3-0	5-0	10	1	W
13/06	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	5-0	7-3	4	3	W
31/05	FK Lielupe Latvia Cup	4-0	6-0	19	0	W
23/05	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
16/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Riga FC II vs Metta/LU?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Metta/LU win (74%). Probabilities: Riga FC II 11%, draw 15%, Metta/LU 74%.

How many goals are expected in Riga FC II vs Metta/LU?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Riga FC II 1.18 · Metta/LU 3.02), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Riga FC II vs Metta/LU?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.