Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 01/08, 14:00

Prediction: Skanstes SK vs Marupes SC

Team pages: Skanstes SK · Marupes SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Skanstes SK1.48

Marupes SC1.57

1X2

35% 25% 39%

Skanstes SK Draw Marupes SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Skanstes SK 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Marupes SC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Skanstes SK 2–2–2 Marupes SC (6 last)

Marupes SC4-0Skanstes SK
Marupes SC0-1Skanstes SK
Skanstes SK1-0Marupes SC
Marupes SC0-0Skanstes SK
Skanstes SK1-1Marupes SC
Marupes SC2-0Skanstes SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Skanstes SK 1445 · Marupes SC 1486

	Skanstes SK	Draw	Marupes SC
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marupes SC (rating 1445 vs 1486).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Skanstes SK	Marupes SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +4’	2.50	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Skanstes SK 2–2–2 Marupes SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	4-0 HT 1-0	Skanstes SK
28/09/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Skanstes SK
17/05/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	1-0 HT 0-0	Marupes SC
03/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Skanstes SK
06/04/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	1-1 HT 1-1	Marupes SC
10/06/23 Latvia Cup	Marupes SC	2-0 HT 1-0	Skanstes SK

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	14	12	1	1	55	11	37
2	Valmiera FC	14	11	2	1	38	12	35
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	14	9	3	2	24	17	30
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	14	8	5	1	27	13	29
5	JDFS Alberts	14	7	3	4	29	22	24
6	Marupes SC	14	7	1	6	24	20	22
7	SK Super Nova II	14	5	5	4	21	20	20
8	Riga FC II	14	6	1	7	21	26	19
9	Skanstes SK	14	4	1	9	21	29	13
10	RFS II	14	3	3	8	20	31	12
11	JFK Ventspils	14	2	5	7	17	24	11
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	14	3	2	9	18	40	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	14	1	4	9	16	38	7
14	Rezeknes FA	14	1	2	11	11	39	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Skanstes SK	Marupes SC
JFK Ventspils	0-3 L	1-2 L
Metta/LU	1-3 L	0-4 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	4-2 W	2-1 W
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	0-2 L	0-2 L
RFS II	4-0 W	1-4 L
Riga FC II	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Skanstes SK (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Skanstes SK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
11/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-3	10	4	L
04/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
28/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-2	3	1	W
14/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-2	7	7	L
30/05	Valmiera FC Latvia Cup	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
24/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	7	2	L
10/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	4-0	6	3	W
04/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	5	2	W

Marupes SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-4	2	4	L
12/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Cup	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
04/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
27/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
19/06	FK Aliance Latvia Cup	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/06	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	Jfc Jelgava Latvia Cup	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
17/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	4-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Skanstes SK vs Marupes SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Marupes SC win (39%). Probabilities: Skanstes SK 35%, draw 25%, Marupes SC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Skanstes SK vs Marupes SC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Skanstes SK 1.48 · Marupes SC 1.57), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Skanstes SK vs Marupes SC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.