Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 02/08, 14:00

Prediction: JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene/BJSS

Team pages: JFK Ventspils · FK Smiltene/BJSS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

JFK Ventspils2.01

FK Smiltene/BJSS1.36

1X2

52% 23% 25%

JFK Ventspils Draw FK Smiltene/BJSS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JFK Ventspils 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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FK Smiltene/BJSS 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils 3–3–0 FK Smiltene/BJSS (6 last)

FK Smiltene/BJSS3-3JFK Ventspils
FK Smiltene/BJSS2-2JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils2-1FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS0-2JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils2-0FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS1-1JFK Ventspils

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JFK Ventspils 1479 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1430

	JFK Ventspils	Draw	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JFK Ventspils (rating 1479 vs 1430).
H2H favours JFK Ventspils: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JFK Ventspils	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	2.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
06:04 +19’	1.73	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JFK Ventspils 3–3–0 FK Smiltene/BJSS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	3-3 HT 0-1	JFK Ventspils
20/09/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-2 HT 2-1	JFK Ventspils
11/05/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	2-1 HT 2-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
31/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-2 HT 0-2	JFK Ventspils
05/05/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
27/08/23 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-1 HT 0-1	JFK Ventspils

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	14	12	1	1	55	11	37
2	Valmiera FC	14	11	2	1	38	12	35
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	15	9	5	1	30	13	32
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	14	9	3	2	24	17	30
5	JDFS Alberts	14	7	3	4	29	22	24
6	Marupes SC	14	7	1	6	24	20	22
7	SK Super Nova II	15	5	5	5	21	23	20
8	Riga FC II	14	6	1	7	21	26	19
9	Skanstes SK	14	4	1	9	21	29	13
10	RFS II	14	3	3	8	20	31	12
11	JFK Ventspils	14	2	5	7	17	24	11
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	14	3	2	9	18	40	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	14	1	4	9	16	38	7
14	Rezeknes FA	14	1	2	11	11	39	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JFK Ventspils	FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-1 D	0-1 L
Skanstes SK	3-0 W	2-4 L
Rezeknes FA	1-1 D	1-0 W
Valmiera FC	0-2 L	1-4 L
Marupes SC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JFK Ventspils (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JFK Ventspils

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
20/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia Cup	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
14/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
01/06	Upesciema Warriors Latvia Cup	1-0	3-0	11	4	W
23/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	9	7	L
09/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L

FK Smiltene/BJSS

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-4	6	1	L
22/06	Valmiera FC Latvia Cup	1-3	1-4	2	8	L
14/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
30/05	Futbola Parks Academy Latvia Cup	0-1	5-1	–	–	W
24/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
13/05	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/05	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JFK Ventspils win (52%). Probabilities: JFK Ventspils 52%, draw 23%, FK Smiltene/BJSS 25%.

How many goals are expected in JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model expects 3.37 goals (JFK Ventspils 2.01 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.