Football · Argentina Championship Women · 27/07, 20:00
Prediction: Boca Juniors (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.8Total
Boca Juniors (W)0.96
San Lorenzo (W)0.84
1X2
Boca Juniors (W)
Draw
San Lorenzo (W)
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Boca Juniors (W)
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
San Lorenzo (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boca Juniors (W)
3–1–2
San Lorenzo (W)
(6 last)
- San Lorenzo (W)1-1Boca Juniors (W)
- San Lorenzo (W)4-3Boca Juniors (W)
- San Lorenzo (W)3-1Boca Juniors (W)
- Boca Juniors (W)4-0San Lorenzo (W)
- Boca Juniors (W)2-1San Lorenzo (W)
- Boca Juniors (W)3-0San Lorenzo (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boca Juniors (W) 1535 · San Lorenzo (W) 1581
| Boca Juniors (W) | Draw | San Lorenzo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 36% | 29% |
| Market | 37% | 31% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.8 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1535 vs 1581).
- H2H favours Boca Juniors (W): 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boca Juniors (W) | San Lorenzo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.6 | 1.9 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors (W) 3–1–2 San Lorenzo (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 Argentina Championship Women | San Lorenzo (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Boca Juniors (W) |
| 04/03/25 Argentina Championship Women | San Lorenzo (W) | 4-3 HT 2-1 | Boca Juniors (W) |
| 02/11/24 Argentina Championship Women | San Lorenzo (W) | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Boca Juniors (W) |
| 15/06/24 Argentina Championship Women | Boca Juniors (W) | 4-0 HT 3-0 | San Lorenzo (W) |
| 11/02/24 Argentina Copa Federal Women | Boca Juniors (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | San Lorenzo (W) |
| 27/05/23 Argentina Championship Women | Boca Juniors (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | San Lorenzo (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Banfield (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Belgrano (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Huracan (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Lanus (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | River Plate (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Racing Club (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | San Luis FC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | CA Independiente Women | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boca Juniors (W) | San Lorenzo (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Lanus (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| San Luis FC (W) | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Union Santa Fe (W) | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| CA Independiente Women | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Huracan (W) | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| River Plate (W) | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Belgrano (W) | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boca Juniors (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 13/07 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 08/07 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/06 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 21/05 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
San Lorenzo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/07 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 08/07 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 29/06 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 22/05 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors (W) win (37%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors (W) 37%, draw 33%, San Lorenzo (W) 30%.
How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?
The model expects 1.8 goals (Boca Juniors (W) 0.96 · San Lorenzo (W) 0.84), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.