Football · Argentina Championship Women · 03/08, 16:00
Prediction: River Plate (W) vs CA Independiente Women
Team pages: River Plate (W) · CA Independiente Women
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
River Plate (W)2.02
CA Independiente Women0.67
1X2
River Plate (W)
Draw
CA Independiente Women
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
River Plate (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
CA Independiente Women
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
River Plate (W)
3–1–2
CA Independiente Women
(6 last)
- CA Independiente Women0-2River Plate (W)
- CA Independiente Women1-3River Plate (W)
- CA Independiente Women2-1River Plate (W)
- River Plate (W)3-1CA Independiente Women
- CA Independiente Women2-2River Plate (W)
- CA Independiente Women1-0River Plate (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · River Plate (W) 1509 · CA Independiente Women 1421
| River Plate (W) | Draw | CA Independiente Women | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 21% | 10% |
| Market | 69% | 20% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours River Plate (W) (rating 1509 vs 1421).
- H2H favours River Plate (W): 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| River Plate (W) | CA Independiente Women | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.1 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · River Plate (W) 3–1–2 CA Independiente Women
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 0-2 HT 0-0 | River Plate (W) |
| 19/05/25 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 1-3 HT 0-1 | River Plate (W) |
| 01/10/24 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 2-1 HT 2-0 | River Plate (W) |
| 10/05/24 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 3-1 HT 0-1 | CA Independiente Women |
| 24/11/23 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 2-2 HT 2-1 | River Plate (W) |
| 06/03/23 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 1-0 HT 0-0 | River Plate (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis FC (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Banfield (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | San Lorenzo (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Huracan (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Lanus (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Racing Club (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Boca Juniors (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Belgrano (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | River Plate (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | CA Independiente Women | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | River Plate (W) | CA Independiente Women |
|---|---|---|
| Banfield (W) | 4-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Gimnasia LP (W) | 2-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Racing Club (W) | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| San Lorenzo (W) | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Boca Juniors (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: River Plate (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
River Plate (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/07 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/07 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 26/06 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 25/05 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 21/05 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
CA Independiente Women
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 17/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/07 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 26/06 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in River Plate (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
According to our model, the most likely result is a River Plate (W) win (69%). Probabilities: River Plate (W) 69%, draw 21%, CA Independiente Women 11%.
How many goals are expected in River Plate (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
The model expects 2.7 goals (River Plate (W) 2.02 · CA Independiente Women 0.67), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in River Plate (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.