Football · Argentina Championship Women · 27/07, 20:00

Prediction: Union Santa Fe (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Union Santa Fe (W)0.99

Gimnasia LP (W)2.32

1X2

13% 21% 66%

Union Santa Fe (W) Draw Gimnasia LP (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Union Santa Fe (W) 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Gimnasia LP (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Union Santa Fe (W) 0–1 Gimnasia LP (W) (1 last)

Gimnasia LP (W)4-3Union Santa Fe (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe (W) 1394 · Gimnasia LP (W) 1511

	Union Santa Fe (W)	Draw	Gimnasia LP (W)
Our model	14%	20%	66%
Market	13%	22%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia LP (W) (rating 1394 vs 1511).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Santa Fe (W)	Gimnasia LP (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.2	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/33/56%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.6	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.10

21.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.38 → 1.38	Pinn 1.59 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:03 +15’	7.00	4.10	1.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:21	5.13	3.55	1.57
15:20	5.33▲	3.64▲	1.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe (W) 0–0–1 Gimnasia LP (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	4-3 HT 2-2	Union Santa Fe (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Banfield (W)	1	1	0	3	0	3
2	Boca Juniors (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Belgrano (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Huracan (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lanus (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	River Plate (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	San Lorenzo (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Gimnasia LP (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Newell's Old Boys (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Racing Club (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	San Luis FC (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Social Atletico Television (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Union Santa Fe (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	CA Independiente Women	1	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Santa Fe (W)	Gimnasia LP (W)
Newell's Old Boys (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Racing Club (W)	1-2 L	1-4 L
San Lorenzo (W)	1-2 L	1-4 L
CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	0-0 D	0-2 L
Social Atletico Television (W)	0-5 L	1-1 D
CA Independiente Women	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Santa Fe (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/07	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
08/07	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
04/07	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/06	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	1-2	4	7	L
20/06	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-3	0	3	L
13/06	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
23/05	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
16/05	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-5	1	0	L
09/05	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	2-1	2-2	6	5	D

Gimnasia LP (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
13/07	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
08/07	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
04/07	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	4-2	1	7	W
27/06	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
19/06	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
14/06	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-1	5	6	W
23/05	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-2	1-4	3	4	L
17/05	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-4	4	8	L
11/05	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-2	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gimnasia LP (W) win (66%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe (W) 13%, draw 21%, Gimnasia LP (W) 66%.

How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Union Santa Fe (W) 0.99 · Gimnasia LP (W) 2.32), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.