Football · El Salvador Apertura · 01/11, 22:00

Prediction: Atletico Balboa vs Alianza FC

Team pages: Atletico Balboa · Alianza FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Atletico Balboa1.27

Alianza FC1.53

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Atletico Balboa Draw Alianza FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Balboa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLLDW

Alianza FC 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWDLDDW

Head-to-head

Atletico Balboa 0–1 Alianza FC (1 last)

Alianza FC2-0Atlético Balboa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Balboa 1447 · Alianza FC 1506

	Atletico Balboa	Draw	Alianza FC
Our model	30%	27%	42%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC (rating 1447 vs 1506).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Balboa	Alianza FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.1	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.80▼	Pinn 3.14 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.17

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +18’	2.90	3.60	2.00
10:18 +3’	2.80▼	3.60	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +6’	3.45	3.27	1.96
21:53 +65’	3.05▼	3.38▲	2.17▲
23:22 +46’	3.09▲	3.25▼	2.21▲
19:03 +63’	3.09	3.35▲	2.16▼
14:25 +25’	3.14▲	3.28▼	2.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Balboa 0–0–1 Alianza FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	Alianza FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Atlético Balboa

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	16	9	5	2	29	12	32
2	CD FAS	17	9	4	4	28	18	31
3	AD Isidro Metapan	18	9	4	5	24	19	31
4	CD Aguila	17	7	6	4	30	21	27
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	18	6	9	3	24	16	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	18	7	6	5	25	20	27
7	Alianza FC	16	5	8	3	23	21	23
8	Municipal Limeno	18	6	4	8	27	27	22
9	CD Cacahuatique	18	3	7	8	19	29	16
10	CD INCA Aruba	18	4	4	10	13	32	16
11	Atletico Balboa	17	3	5	9	16	28	14
12	Fuerte San Francisco	17	2	6	9	14	29	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Balboa	Alianza FC
Fuerte San Francisco	2-1 W	2-2 D
CD Aguila	2-2 D	2-2 D
CD FAS	0-1 L	1-2 L
AD Isidro Metapan	2-3 L	1-0 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-2 L	0-0 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	1-1 D	2-2 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	1-3 L	2-2 D
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	3-1 W	2-1 W
CD INCA Aruba	0-1 L	1-1 D
Municipal Limeno	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	3 W 6 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza FC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Balboa

LLWLDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	0	6	W
18/10	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
11/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
04/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-3	5	4	L
29/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
27/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
21/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
12/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
09/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	8	L

Alianza FC

DWDDWDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
17/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
12/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
09/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
04/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
01/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
20/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
06/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Balboa vs Alianza FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza FC win (43%). Probabilities: Atletico Balboa 31%, draw 26%, Alianza FC 43%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Balboa vs Alianza FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Atletico Balboa 1.27 · Alianza FC 1.53), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Balboa vs Alianza FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.