Football · El Salvador Apertura · 09/11, 00:00

Prediction: Municipal Limeno vs Atlético Balboa

Team pages: Municipal Limeno · Atlético Balboa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Municipal Limeno1.71

Atlético Balboa1.05

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Municipal Limeno Draw Atlético Balboa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Municipal Limeno 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWDDD

Atlético Balboa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLDWW

Head-to-head

Municipal Limeno 2–2 Atlético Balboa (4 last)

Atlético Balboa0-2Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno0-1Atlético Balboa
Atlético Balboa3-1Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno2-1Atlético Balboa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Municipal Limeno 1484 · Atlético Balboa 1457

	Municipal Limeno	Draw	Atlético Balboa
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	51%	27%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Municipal Limeno	Atlético Balboa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.30

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.49 ★
2	3.90 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:42 +5’	1.73	3.60	3.90
08:03 +11’	1.75▲	3.50▼	3.90
12:36 +15’	1.75	3.30▼	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:25 +8’	1.83	3.44	4.03
03:24 +40’	1.76▼	3.74▲	3.99▼
04:36 +54’	1.76	3.72▼	3.99
03:30 +48’	1.79▲	3.61▼	4.00▲
08:32 +50’	1.81▲	3.52▼	4.00
12:50 +1’	1.83▲	3.44▼	4.01▲
22:59 +1’	1.85▲	3.49▲	4.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Municipal Limeno 2–0–2 Atlético Balboa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 El Salvador Apertura	Atlético Balboa	0-2 HT 0-0	Municipal Limeno
30/04/23 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Municipal Limeno	0-1 HT 0-0	Atlético Balboa
12/03/23 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Atlético Balboa	3-1	Municipal Limeno
12/11/22 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Municipal Limeno	2-1 HT 2-0	Atlético Balboa

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	19	11	6	2	34	14	39
2	CD FAS	18	9	5	4	29	19	32
3	AD Isidro Metapan	19	9	5	5	25	20	32
4	CD Aguila	19	8	6	5	36	27	30
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	19	6	9	4	25	18	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
7	Alianza FC	19	6	8	5	26	26	26
8	Municipal Limeno	19	6	5	8	28	28	23
9	CD Cacahuatique	19	4	7	8	21	29	19
10	Atlético Balboa	18	4	5	9	17	28	17
11	CD INCA Aruba	19	4	5	10	14	33	17
12	Fuerte San Francisco	19	2	7	10	18	34	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Municipal Limeno	Atlético Balboa
Fuerte San Francisco	1-1 D	2-1 W
AD Isidro Metapan	1-1 D	2-3 L
CD Cacahuatique	3-3 D	0-2 L
Internacional Santa Tecla	2-1 W	1-1 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	2-3 L	1-3 L
CD INCA Aruba	1-2 L	0-1 L
CD FAS	1-3 L	0-1 L
Alianza FC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Municipal Limeno (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Municipal Limeno

WLLLLLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
01/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-2	3-3	4	4	D
17/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
11/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
04/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
02/10	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
28/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	5	3	W

Atlético Balboa

LLLDLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	7	9	W
25/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	0	6	W
18/10	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
11/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
04/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-3	5	4	L
29/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
27/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
21/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
09/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Municipal Limeno vs Atlético Balboa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Municipal Limeno win (51%). Probabilities: Municipal Limeno 51%, draw 27%, Atlético Balboa 22%.

How many goals are expected in Municipal Limeno vs Atlético Balboa?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Municipal Limeno 1.71 · Atlético Balboa 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Municipal Limeno vs Atlético Balboa?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.