Football · El Salvador Apertura · 07/11, 01:00

Prediction: CD INCA Aruba vs AD Isidro Metapan

Team pages: CD INCA Aruba · AD Isidro Metapan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

CD INCA Aruba0.87

AD Isidro Metapan1.52

1X2

21% 27% 52%

CD INCA Aruba Draw AD Isidro Metapan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD INCA Aruba 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDLLLL

AD Isidro Metapan 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWDLD

Head-to-head

CD INCA Aruba 1–0 AD Isidro Metapan (1 last)

AD Isidro Metapan0-1CD INCA Aruba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD INCA Aruba 1469 · AD Isidro Metapan 1507

	CD INCA Aruba	Draw	AD Isidro Metapan
Our model	20%	28%	51%
Market	22%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD INCA Aruba	AD Isidro Metapan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	2.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.10▼	Pinn 5.08 ★
X	3.80 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.55
2	1.55 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +3’	4.75	3.80	1.55
05:59 +6’	4.10▼	3.50▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:41 +26’	5.08	3.55	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD INCA Aruba 1–0–0 AD Isidro Metapan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 El Salvador Apertura	AD Isidro Metapan	0-1 HT 0-1	CD INCA Aruba

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	18	10	6	2	32	13	36
2	CD FAS	18	9	5	4	29	19	32
3	AD Isidro Metapan	18	9	4	5	24	19	31
4	CD Aguila	18	8	6	4	34	24	30
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	18	6	9	3	24	16	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	18	7	6	5	25	20	27
7	Municipal Limeno	19	6	5	8	28	28	23
8	Alianza FC	18	5	8	5	23	24	23
9	Atletico Balboa	18	4	5	9	17	28	17
10	CD Cacahuatique	18	3	7	8	19	29	16
11	CD INCA Aruba	18	4	4	10	13	32	16
12	Fuerte San Francisco	19	2	7	10	18	34	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD INCA Aruba	AD Isidro Metapan
CD Cacahuatique	0-1 L	2-0 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-2 L	0-0 D
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-4 L	2-1 W
CD FAS	1-1 D	0-0 D
Municipal Limeno	2-1 W	1-1 D
Alianza FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Fuerte San Francisco	2-1 W	3-2 W
CD Aguila	1-3 L	0-3 L
Atlético Balboa	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD INCA Aruba

WLWDWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
24/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
16/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-3	1-4	4	7	L
05/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
02/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

AD Isidro Metapan

LWDWWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
24/10	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
22/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
18/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-2	7	4	W
11/10	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
04/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	3-2	10	4	W
27/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
20/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
09/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
06/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-1	12	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD INCA Aruba vs AD Isidro Metapan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AD Isidro Metapan win (52%). Probabilities: CD INCA Aruba 21%, draw 27%, AD Isidro Metapan 52%.

How many goals are expected in CD INCA Aruba vs AD Isidro Metapan?

The model expects 2.39 goals (CD INCA Aruba 0.87 · AD Isidro Metapan 1.52), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD INCA Aruba vs AD Isidro Metapan?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.