Football · El Salvador Apertura · 17/10, 03:00

Prediction: Internacional Santa Tecla vs Municipal Limeno

Team pages: Internacional Santa Tecla · Municipal Limeno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Internacional Santa Tecla1.6

Municipal Limeno1.08

1X2

49% 27% 25%

Internacional Santa Tecla Draw Municipal Limeno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional Santa Tecla 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDLDD

Municipal Limeno 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Internacional Santa Tecla 3–1–2 Municipal Limeno (6 last)

Municipal Limeno0-1Internacional Santa Tecla
Internacional Santa Tecla2-1Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno2-0Internacional Santa Tecla
Internacional Santa Tecla2-1Municipal Limeno
Municipal Limeno2-1Internacional Santa Tecla
Internacional Santa Tecla1-1Municipal Limeno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional Santa Tecla 1520 · Municipal Limeno 1477

	Internacional Santa Tecla	Draw	Municipal Limeno
Our model	48%	27%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional Santa Tecla (rating 1520 vs 1477).
H2H favours Internacional Santa Tecla: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional Santa Tecla	Municipal Limeno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.5	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.6	4.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.83▼	Pinn 1.88
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.46
2	3.30 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.85 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:45 +2’	1.95	3.30	3.30
11:09 +2’	1.83▼	3.40▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +25’	2.05	3.19	3.42
00:41 +26’	2.01▼	3.23▲	3.52▲
10:14 +57’	1.88▼	3.38▲	3.79▲
01:00 +1’	1.89▲	3.43▲	3.86▲
01:58 +6’	1.88▼	3.46▲	3.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional Santa Tecla 3–1–2 Municipal Limeno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	Municipal Limeno	0-1 HT 0-1	Internacional Santa Tecla
11/05/26 El Salvador Clausura	Internacional Santa Tecla	2-1 HT 0-0	Municipal Limeno
08/05/26 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	2-0 HT 2-0	Internacional Santa Tecla
26/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	Internacional Santa Tecla	2-1 HT 1-1	Municipal Limeno
01/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	Municipal Limeno	2-1 HT 0-0	Internacional Santa Tecla
09/11/25 El Salvador Apertura	Internacional Santa Tecla	1-1 HT 0-1	Municipal Limeno

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	15	9	4	2	28	11	31
2	CD FAS	14	9	3	2	25	12	30
3	AD Isidro Metapan	14	8	2	4	20	15	26
4	CD Aguila	15	6	5	4	25	18	23
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	15	5	8	2	21	14	23
6	Alianza FC	14	4	7	3	22	21	19
7	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	15	5	4	6	19	20	19
8	Municipal Limeno	15	5	2	8	21	22	17
9	CD INCA Aruba	16	4	4	8	13	29	16
10	Atlético Balboa	15	3	4	8	15	23	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	2	6	7	11	24	12
12	CD Cacahuatique	15	2	5	8	15	26	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional Santa Tecla	Municipal Limeno
Alianza FC	2-2 D	2-3 L
Fuerte San Francisco	1-1 D	2-0 W
CD Aguila	1-2 L	0-0 D
Atlético Balboa	1-1 D	2-0 W
AD Isidro Metapan	0-0 D	3-1 W
CD FAS	2-2 D	1-3 L
CD Cacahuatique	2-0 W	3-1 W
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-3 L	2-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	3-0 W	1-2 L
CD INCA Aruba	4-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 5 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Municipal Limeno (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional Santa Tecla

WWLWDDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	6	8	D
05/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	8	7	D
30/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
27/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	12	3	D
20/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
17/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
07/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-3	0-3	1	5	L
29/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
22/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	4-1	4	1	W

Municipal Limeno

WWWDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
04/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
02/10	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
28/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
10/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	6	10	D
06/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
29/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-1	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Municipal Limeno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional Santa Tecla win (49%). Probabilities: Internacional Santa Tecla 49%, draw 27%, Municipal Limeno 25%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Municipal Limeno?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Internacional Santa Tecla 1.6 · Municipal Limeno 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional Santa Tecla vs Municipal Limeno?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.