Football · El Salvador Apertura · 01/11, 22:00

Prediction: Fuerte San Francisco vs CD Aguila

Team pages: Fuerte San Francisco · CD Aguila

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Fuerte San Francisco1.02

CD Aguila1.78

1X2

21% 25% 55%

Fuerte San Francisco Draw CD Aguila

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fuerte San Francisco 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLDWLL

CD Aguila 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Fuerte San Francisco 0–3–3 CD Aguila (6 last)

CD Aguila4-1Fuerte San Francisco
CD Aguila1-1Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-1CD Aguila
Fuerte San Francisco2-3CD Aguila
CD Aguila3-3Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-0CD Aguila

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuerte San Francisco 1409 · CD Aguila 1586

	Fuerte San Francisco	Draw	CD Aguila
Our model	20%	25%	54%
Market	21%	24%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Aguila (rating 1409 vs 1586).
H2H favours CD Aguila: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fuerte San Francisco	CD Aguila
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.3	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.70

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 14:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.33▲	Pinn 5.01 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:34 +6’	4.20	3.70	1.65
22:51 +7’	4.33▲	3.70	1.65
12:29 +9’	4.20▼	3.70	1.65
14:31 +18’	4.33▲	3.70	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:52 +40’	5.03	3.62	1.64
05:21 +54’	5.01▼	3.62	1.64
12:25 +14’	5.16▲	3.68▲	1.61▼
13:47 +62’	5.01▼	3.68	1.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fuerte San Francisco 0–3–3 CD Aguila

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	CD Aguila	4-1 HT 1-1	Fuerte San Francisco
01/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	1-1 HT 1-1	Fuerte San Francisco
26/02/26 El Salvador Cup	Fuerte San Francisco	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Aguila
04/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	2-3 HT 0-2	CD Aguila
29/10/25 El Salvador Apertura	CD Aguila	3-3 HT 3-1	Fuerte San Francisco
10/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Aguila

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	16	9	5	2	29	12	32
2	CD FAS	17	9	4	4	28	18	31
3	AD Isidro Metapan	18	9	4	5	24	19	31
4	CD Aguila	17	7	6	4	30	21	27
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	18	6	9	3	24	16	27
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	18	7	6	5	25	20	27
7	Alianza FC	16	5	8	3	23	21	23
8	Municipal Limeno	18	6	4	8	27	27	22
9	CD Cacahuatique	18	3	7	8	19	29	16
10	CD INCA Aruba	18	4	4	10	13	32	16
11	Atletico Balboa	17	3	5	9	16	28	14
12	Fuerte San Francisco	17	2	6	9	14	29	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuerte San Francisco	CD Aguila
Atlético Balboa	1-2 L	2-2 D
AD Isidro Metapan	2-3 L	3-0 W
CD Cacahuatique	2-1 W	4-1 W
Internacional Santa Tecla	1-1 D	2-1 W
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-3 L	0-2 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	0-0 D	1-0 W
Alianza FC	2-2 D	2-2 D
CD INCA Aruba	1-2 L	3-1 W
Municipal Limeno	0-2 L	0-0 D
CD FAS	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 6 L	6 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Aguila (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fuerte San Francisco

LLLDDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
18/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
10/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
05/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
01/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
27/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
19/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
05/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	1	L

CD Aguila

DDWWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
18/10	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
11/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
03/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
30/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
27/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	9	12	L
20/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
12/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	3	0	W
10/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	10	D
06/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	4	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuerte San Francisco vs CD Aguila?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Aguila win (55%). Probabilities: Fuerte San Francisco 21%, draw 25%, CD Aguila 55%.

How many goals are expected in Fuerte San Francisco vs CD Aguila?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Fuerte San Francisco 1.02 · CD Aguila 1.78), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fuerte San Francisco vs CD Aguila?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.