Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 07/11, 16:30
Prediction: Pontevedra vs UD Ourense
Team pages: Pontevedra
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.21Total
Pontevedra1.49
UD Ourense0.71
1X2
Pontevedra
Draw
UD Ourense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Pontevedra
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
UD Ourense
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pontevedra
0–1–0
UD Ourense
(1 last)
- UD Ourense1-1Pontevedra
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pontevedra 1497 · UD Ourense 1450
| Pontevedra | Draw | UD Ourense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 29% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontevedra (rating 1497 vs 1450).
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pontevedra | UD Ourense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.6 | 4.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontevedra 0–1–0 UD Ourense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/25 Spain Copa del Rey | UD Ourense | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Pontevedra |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | UD Logrones | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Mirandes | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | Racing Ferrol | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | CD Extremadura | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Athletic Bilbao B | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 15 |
| 7 | Pontevedra | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| 8 | Cacereno | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
| 9 | Real Aviles CF | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 14 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| 11 | Real Unión | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 13 |
| 12 | Merida | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 13 |
| 13 | Cultural Leonesa | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 14 | Zamora CF | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| 16 | Deportivo Fabril | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 11 |
| 17 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 8 |
| 20 | Arenas Club de Getxo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 8 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pontevedra | UD Ourense |
|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Cultural Leonesa | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Cacereno | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Ponferradina | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| UD Logrones | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Arenas Club de Getxo | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Real Aviles CF | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Pontevedra (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pontevedra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 24/10 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 03/10 | Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/09 | UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
UD Ourense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 18/10 | Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontevedra win (56%). Probabilities: Pontevedra 56%, draw 27%, UD Ourense 17%.
How many goals are expected in Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
The model expects 2.21 goals (Pontevedra 1.49 · UD Ourense 0.71), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Pontevedra vs UD Ourense?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.