Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: UD Logrones vs Arenas Club de Getxo

Team pages: UD Logrones · Arenas Club de Getxo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

UD Logrones2.53

Arenas Club de Getxo1.12

1X2

67% 19% 14%

UD Logrones Draw Arenas Club de Getxo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Logrones 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Arenas Club de Getxo 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLWWW

Head-to-head

UD Logrones 3–1–2 Arenas Club de Getxo (6 last)

Arenas Club de Getxo1-0UD Logrones
UD Logrones0-0Arenas Club de Getxo
Arenas Club de Getxo2-1UD Logrones
UD Logrones5-1Arenas Club de Getxo
Arenas Club de Getxo1-2UD Logrones
UD Logrones4-0Arenas Club de Getxo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Logrones 1556 · Arenas Club de Getxo 1463

	UD Logrones	Draw	Arenas Club de Getxo
Our model	67%	19%	14%
Market	67%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UD Logrones (rating 1556 vs 1463).
H2H favours UD Logrones: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Logrones	Arenas Club de Getxo
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.4	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	4.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +11’	1.33	4.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UD Logrones 3–1–2 Arenas Club de Getxo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	Arenas Club de Getxo	1-0 HT 0-0	UD Logrones
17/11/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	UD Logrones	0-0 HT 0-0	Arenas Club de Getxo
09/03/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	Arenas Club de Getxo	2-1 HT 1-1	UD Logrones
29/10/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	UD Logrones	5-1 HT 4-1	Arenas Club de Getxo
29/02/20 Spain Segunda B Group 2	Arenas Club de Getxo	1-2 HT 1-0	UD Logrones
12/10/19 Spain Segunda B Group 2	UD Logrones	4-0 HT 1-0	Arenas Club de Getxo

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	11	9	1	1	19	9	28
2	UD Logrones	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
3	Pontevedra	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
4	Real Aviles CF	11	5	2	4	23	15	17
5	Mirandes	11	5	2	4	13	12	17
6	Racing Ferrol	11	5	2	4	10	9	17
7	CD Extremadura	11	5	1	5	21	15	16
8	Merida	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
9	Athletic Bilbao B	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
10	Cacereno	11	4	3	4	9	9	15
11	Ponferradina	11	3	6	2	7	7	15
12	Barakaldo	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
13	Real Unión	11	3	4	4	19	19	13
14	Cultural Leonesa	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
15	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	11	4	1	6	13	18	13
16	Zamora CF	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
17	CD Coria	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
18	Deportivo Fabril	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	11	3	2	6	10	23	11
20	UD Ourense	11	2	2	7	4	16	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Logrones	Arenas Club de Getxo
Cultural Leonesa	1-1 D	1-4 L
Deportivo Fabril	2-1 W	2-1 W
Merida	5-3 W	0-4 L
Pontevedra	1-1 D	1-4 L
UD Ourense	3-0 W	2-0 W
Zamora CF	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: UD Logrones (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Logrones

WWDWWLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
31/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
24/10	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	3-1	5	5	W
18/10	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	10	7	D
12/10	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-3	5	7	L
04/10	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
27/09	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	5-3	6	7	W
18/09	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
12/09	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
06/09	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	5	4	W

Arenas Club de Getxo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
01/11	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
24/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
18/10	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-4	4	7	L
12/10	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
03/10	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
26/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
20/09	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-3	3	6	L
13/09	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Logrones vs Arenas Club de Getxo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD Logrones win (67%). Probabilities: UD Logrones 67%, draw 19%, Arenas Club de Getxo 14%.

How many goals are expected in UD Logrones vs Arenas Club de Getxo?

The model expects 3.66 goals (UD Logrones 2.53 · Arenas Club de Getxo 1.12), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Logrones vs Arenas Club de Getxo?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.