Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: CD Extremadura vs Pontevedra

Team pages: CD Extremadura · Pontevedra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

CD Extremadura1.64

Pontevedra1.12

1X2

48% 27% 25%

CD Extremadura Draw Pontevedra

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Extremadura 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWDWWL

Pontevedra 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLWWDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Extremadura 1526 · Pontevedra 1495

	CD Extremadura	Draw	Pontevedra
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Extremadura	Pontevedra
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +8’	1.85	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	11	9	1	1	19	9	28
2	UD Logrones	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
3	Pontevedra	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
4	Real Aviles CF	11	5	2	4	23	15	17
5	Mirandes	11	5	2	4	13	12	17
6	Racing Ferrol	11	5	2	4	10	9	17
7	CD Extremadura	11	5	1	5	21	15	16
8	Merida	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
9	Athletic Bilbao B	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
10	Cacereno	11	4	3	4	9	9	15
11	Ponferradina	11	3	6	2	7	7	15
12	Barakaldo	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
13	Real Unión	11	3	4	4	19	19	13
14	Cultural Leonesa	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
15	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	11	4	1	6	13	18	13
16	Zamora CF	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
17	CD Coria	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
18	Deportivo Fabril	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	11	3	2	6	10	23	11
20	UD Ourense	11	2	2	7	4	16	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Extremadura	Pontevedra
Athletic Bilbao B	3-1 W	1-3 L
Cultural Leonesa	0-1 L	2-1 W
Barakaldo	0-1 L	0-0 D
Racing Ferrol	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Extremadura

WLLLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-5	3	7	L
01/11	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/10	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	3-0	5-0	8	2	W
17/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	2-2	7	5	D
10/10	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	4-2	–	–	W
04/10	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	3-1	2	7	W
26/09	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
20/09	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
11/09	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
06/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Pontevedra

WLDDLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
01/11	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/10	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
18/10	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	0	8	W
11/10	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
03/10	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
27/09	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
18/09	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
12/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
05/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	4-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Extremadura vs Pontevedra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Extremadura win (48%). Probabilities: CD Extremadura 48%, draw 27%, Pontevedra 25%.

How many goals are expected in CD Extremadura vs Pontevedra?

The model expects 2.76 goals (CD Extremadura 1.64 · Pontevedra 1.12), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Extremadura vs Pontevedra?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.