Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 15/11, 14:15

Prediction: Zamora CF vs Real Aviles CF

Team pages: Zamora CF · Real Aviles CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Zamora CF1.53

Real Aviles CF1.25

1X2

43% 28% 30%

Zamora CF Draw Real Aviles CF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Zamora CF 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDDLLL

Real Aviles CF 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Zamora CF 3–1–2 Real Aviles CF (6 last)

Real Aviles CF0-2Zamora CF
Zamora CF2-3Real Aviles CF
Real Aviles CF0-1Zamora CF
Zamora CF1-0Real Aviles CF
Real Aviles CF2-1Zamora CF
Zamora CF1-1Real Aviles CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zamora CF 1497 · Real Aviles CF 1528

	Zamora CF	Draw	Real Aviles CF
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Zamora CF: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zamora CF	Real Aviles CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +4’	2.10	3.25	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zamora CF 3–1–2 Real Aviles CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Real Aviles CF	0-2 HT 0-1	Zamora CF
12/10/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Zamora CF	2-3 HT 1-1	Real Aviles CF
24/03/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Real Aviles CF	0-1 HT 0-1	Zamora CF
12/11/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Zamora CF	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Aviles CF
07/05/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Real Aviles CF	2-1 HT 1-0	Zamora CF
08/01/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Zamora CF	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Aviles CF

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	11	9	1	1	19	9	28
2	UD Logrones	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
3	Pontevedra	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
4	Real Aviles CF	11	5	2	4	23	15	17
5	Mirandes	11	5	2	4	13	12	17
6	Racing Ferrol	11	5	2	4	10	9	17
7	CD Extremadura	11	5	1	5	21	15	16
8	Merida	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
9	Athletic Bilbao B	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
10	Cacereno	11	4	3	4	9	9	15
11	Ponferradina	11	3	6	2	7	7	15
12	Barakaldo	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
13	Real Unión	11	3	4	4	19	19	13
14	Cultural Leonesa	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
15	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	11	4	1	6	13	18	13
16	Zamora CF	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
17	CD Coria	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
18	Deportivo Fabril	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	11	3	2	6	10	23	11
20	UD Ourense	11	2	2	7	4	16	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zamora CF	Real Aviles CF
Unionistas de Salamanca CF	0-1 L	3-1 W
Ponferradina	1-1 D	2-0 W
CD Coria	2-0 W	1-1 D
CD Extremadura	1-0 W	5-2 W
Lugo	1-2 L	1-2 L
UD Logrones	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Aviles CF (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zamora CF

LWLWWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	9	8	L
01/11	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
24/10	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
17/10	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
10/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
04/10	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
26/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
20/09	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	1-2	1	6	L
13/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-2	6	4	L

Real Aviles CF

LWDDLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	5-2	3	7	W
31/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	7	8	W
24/10	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
18/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	9	4	W
11/10	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-0	1	8	W
02/10	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
27/09	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	3-3	4	6	D
19/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
12/09	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
06/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zamora CF vs Real Aviles CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zamora CF win (43%). Probabilities: Zamora CF 43%, draw 28%, Real Aviles CF 30%.

How many goals are expected in Zamora CF vs Real Aviles CF?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Zamora CF 1.53 · Real Aviles CF 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zamora CF vs Real Aviles CF?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.