Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 14/11, 18:45

Prediction: Deportivo Fabril vs Barakaldo

Team pages: Deportivo Fabril · Barakaldo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Deportivo Fabril1.14

Barakaldo1.35

1X2

31% 29% 41%

Deportivo Fabril Draw Barakaldo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Fabril 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Barakaldo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLWDDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Fabril 1475 · Barakaldo 1500

	Deportivo Fabril	Draw	Barakaldo
Our model	30%	29%	40%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Fabril	Barakaldo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +6’	2.90	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	11	9	1	1	19	9	28
2	UD Logrones	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
3	Pontevedra	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
4	Real Aviles CF	11	5	2	4	23	15	17
5	Mirandes	11	5	2	4	13	12	17
6	Racing Ferrol	11	5	2	4	10	9	17
7	CD Extremadura	11	5	1	5	21	15	16
8	Merida	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
9	Athletic Bilbao B	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
10	Cacereno	11	4	3	4	9	9	15
11	Ponferradina	11	3	6	2	7	7	15
12	Barakaldo	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
13	Real Unión	11	3	4	4	19	19	13
14	Cultural Leonesa	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
15	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	11	4	1	6	13	18	13
16	Zamora CF	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
17	CD Coria	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
18	Deportivo Fabril	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	11	3	2	6	10	23	11
20	UD Ourense	11	2	2	7	4	16	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Fabril	Barakaldo
Arenas Club de Getxo	1-2 L	1-1 D
CD Extremadura	0-5 L	1-0 W
Racing Ferrol	0-1 L	0-1 L
Real Unión	2-0 W	2-0 W
Ponferradina	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Barakaldo (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Fabril

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
01/11	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
24/10	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-3	0-5	5	2	L
17/10	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	11	7	L
04/10	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
26/09	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
20/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
13/09	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
06/09	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	6	2	D

Barakaldo

LWLDDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-0	0	4	W
01/11	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
24/10	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	14	9	W
10/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
03/10	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
27/09	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	3-3	6	6	D
19/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
11/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-4	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Fabril vs Barakaldo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barakaldo win (41%). Probabilities: Deportivo Fabril 31%, draw 29%, Barakaldo 41%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Fabril vs Barakaldo?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Deportivo Fabril 1.14 · Barakaldo 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Fabril vs Barakaldo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.