Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: Lugo vs Mirandes

Team pages: Lugo · Mirandes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Lugo1.32

Mirandes1.23

1X2

38% 29% 34%

Lugo Draw Mirandes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lugo 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWLWW

Mirandes 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lugo 2–1–3 Mirandes (6 last)

Lugo2-0Mirandes
Mirandes2-0Lugo
Lugo0-0Mirandes
Lugo2-1Mirandes
Lugo1-2Mirandes
Mirandes3-2Lugo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugo 1581 · Mirandes 1519

	Lugo	Draw	Mirandes
Our model	37%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugo (rating 1581 vs 1519).
H2H favours Mirandes: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lugo	Mirandes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +7’	2.35	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugo 2–1–3 Mirandes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/23 Spain Copa del Rey	Lugo	2-0 HT 0-0	Mirandes
15/01/23 Spain Segunda	Mirandes	2-0 HT 1-0	Lugo
30/10/22 Spain Segunda	Lugo	0-0 HT 0-0	Mirandes
09/01/22 Spain Segunda	Lugo	2-1 HT 1-0	Mirandes
16/12/21 Spain Copa del Rey	Lugo	1-2 HT 0-1	Mirandes
03/11/21 Spain Segunda	Mirandes	3-2 HT 0-1	Lugo

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	11	9	1	1	19	9	28
2	UD Logrones	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
3	Pontevedra	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
4	Real Aviles CF	11	5	2	4	23	15	17
5	Mirandes	11	5	2	4	13	12	17
6	Racing Ferrol	11	5	2	4	10	9	17
7	CD Extremadura	11	5	1	5	21	15	16
8	Merida	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
9	Athletic Bilbao B	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
10	Cacereno	11	4	3	4	9	9	15
11	Ponferradina	11	3	6	2	7	7	15
12	Barakaldo	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
13	Real Unión	11	3	4	4	19	19	13
14	Cultural Leonesa	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
15	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	11	4	1	6	13	18	13
16	Zamora CF	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
17	CD Coria	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
18	Deportivo Fabril	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	11	3	2	6	10	23	11
20	UD Ourense	11	2	2	7	4	16	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugo	Mirandes
Merida	2-1 W	4-3 W
Real Unión	1-4 L	2-2 D
UD Logrones	3-1 W	1-0 W
Racing Ferrol	1-0 W	2-0 W
Zamora CF	2-1 W	1-1 D
CD Coria	1-0 W	0-2 L
Ponferradina	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lugo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
01/11	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-4	5	4	L
17/10	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/10	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	3-1	5	7	W
02/10	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	6	0	W
26/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
20/09	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
13/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
04/09	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Mirandes

WWDWLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	9	8	L
31/10	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
24/10	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
17/10	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	3	9	L
10/10	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/10	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
27/09	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-2	8	6	D
12/09	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-2	4-3	4	7	W
05/09	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-0	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugo vs Mirandes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lugo win (38%). Probabilities: Lugo 38%, draw 29%, Mirandes 34%.

How many goals are expected in Lugo vs Mirandes?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Lugo 1.32 · Mirandes 1.23), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lugo vs Mirandes?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.