Football · Italy Serie A Women · 27/09, 13:00
Prediction: Inter Milan (W) vs Fiorentina (W)
Team pages: Inter Milan (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
Inter Milan (W)1.83
Fiorentina (W)1.17
1X2
Inter Milan (W)
Draw
Fiorentina (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 65%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Inter Milan (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Fiorentina (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Inter Milan (W)
3–1–2
Fiorentina (W)
(6 last)
- Inter Milan (W)3-0Fiorentina (W)
- Fiorentina (W)2-2Inter Milan (W)
- Inter Milan (W)3-1Fiorentina (W)
- Inter Milan (W)1-3Fiorentina (W)
- Fiorentina (W)1-0Inter Milan (W)
- Inter Milan (W)2-0Fiorentina (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Inter Milan (W) 1605 · Fiorentina (W) 1505
| Inter Milan (W) | Draw | Fiorentina (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter Milan (W) (rating 1605 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Inter Milan (W): 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Inter Milan (W) | Fiorentina (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.8 | 2.6 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Inter Milan (W) 3–1–2 Fiorentina (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Italy Serie A Women | Inter Milan (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Fiorentina (W) |
| 11/10/25 Italy Serie A Women | Fiorentina (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Inter Milan (W) |
| 06/09/25 Italy Serie A Cup Women | Inter Milan (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Fiorentina (W) |
| 03/05/25 Italy Serie A Women | Inter Milan (W) | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Fiorentina (W) |
| 23/03/25 Italy Serie A Women | Fiorentina (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Inter Milan (W) |
| 01/02/25 Italy Serie A Women | Inter Milan (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fiorentina (W) |
Standings · Italy Serie A Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Milan (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fiorentina (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Roma (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Como 1907 (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Inter Milan (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juventus (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lazio (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Parma (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sassuolo (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Como (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Napoli (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ternana (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Inter Milan (W) | Fiorentina (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Como (W) | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Juventus (W) | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| AC Milan (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Genoa (W) | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Lazio (W) | 5-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Sassuolo (W) | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Roma (W) | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Parma (W) | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Inter Milan (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Inter Milan (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Como (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Juventus (W) Italy Serie A Women |
3-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | AC Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Genoa (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Lazio (W) Italy Serie A Women |
3-0 | 5-2 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | Napoli (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 16/03 | Sassuolo (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/02 | Roma (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/02 | Parma (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 08/02 | Fiorentina (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
Fiorentina (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Lazio (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Genoa (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Como (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Ternana (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Juventus (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | Parma (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 15/03 | Roma (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 22/02 | Sassuolo (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/02 | AC Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 08/02 | Inter Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Inter Milan (W) vs Fiorentina (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Inter Milan (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Inter Milan (W) 52%, draw 25%, Fiorentina (W) 23%.
How many goals are expected in Inter Milan (W) vs Fiorentina (W)?
The model expects 3.01 goals (Inter Milan (W) 1.83 · Fiorentina (W) 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Inter Milan (W) vs Fiorentina (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.