Football · Italy Serie A Women · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Sassuolo (W) vs Roma (W)

Team pages: Sassuolo (W) · Roma (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Sassuolo (W)0.84

Roma (W)2.13

1X2

13% 20% 67%

Sassuolo (W) Draw Roma (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sassuolo (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWDLD

Roma (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Sassuolo (W) 1–5 Roma (W) (6 last)

Sassuolo (W)1-7Roma (W)
Roma (W)0-1Sassuolo (W)
Sassuolo (W)0-3Roma (W)
Roma (W)2-1Sassuolo (W)
Roma (W)3-0Sassuolo (W)
Roma (W)3-0Sassuolo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sassuolo (W) 1498 · Roma (W) 1637

	Sassuolo (W)	Draw	Roma (W)
Our model	13%	21%	66%
Market	14%	19%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roma (W) (rating 1498 vs 1637).
H2H favours Roma (W): 5-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sassuolo (W)	Roma (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	1.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.75

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 6.82
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.00 ★
2	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.34

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +3’	6.50	4.75	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +7’	6.82	5.00	1.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sassuolo (W) 1–0–5 Roma (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Italy Serie A Cup Women	Sassuolo (W)	1-7 HT 0-4	Roma (W)
30/08/26 Italy Serie A Cup Women	Roma (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Sassuolo (W)
10/05/26 Italy Serie A Women	Sassuolo (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Roma (W)
18/01/26 Italy Serie A Women	Roma (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Sassuolo (W)
14/09/25 Italy Serie A Cup Women	Roma (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Sassuolo (W)
05/03/25 Coppa Italia Women	Roma (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Sassuolo (W)

Standings · Italy Serie A Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AC Milan (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fiorentina (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roma (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Como 1907 (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Inter Milan (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Juventus (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lazio (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Parma (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sassuolo (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Como (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Napoli (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ternana (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sassuolo (W)	Roma (W)
Napoli (W)	1-1 D	2-2 D
Genoa (W)	0-0 D	2-0 W
Lazio (W)	3-0 W	2-1 W
AC Milan (W)	0-3 L	1-0 W
Ternana (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Inter Milan (W)	0-3 L	1-0 W
Fiorentina (W)	2-3 L	1-1 D
Como (W)	0-2 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Roma (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sassuolo (W)

WLLLDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Napoli (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
10/05	Roma (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
02/05	Genoa (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
25/04	Lazio (W) Italy Serie A Women	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
03/04	AC Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	0-3	7	0	L
22/03	Ternana (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
16/03	Inter Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
22/02	Fiorentina (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	2-3	4	5	L
14/02	Como (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
07/02	Parma (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Roma (W)

WDWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Genoa (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
10/05	Sassuolo (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
02/05	Ternana (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
25/04	Juventus (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
03/04	Como (W) Italy Serie A Women	2-3	4-3	8	1	W
21/03	Lazio (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
15/03	Fiorentina (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
22/02	Inter Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-0	1-0	0	4	W
15/02	Napoli (W) Italy Serie A Women	2-2	2-2	6	2	D
08/02	AC Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sassuolo (W) vs Roma (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Roma (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Sassuolo (W) 13%, draw 20%, Roma (W) 67%.

How many goals are expected in Sassuolo (W) vs Roma (W)?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Sassuolo (W) 0.84 · Roma (W) 2.13), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sassuolo (W) vs Roma (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.