Football · Latvia Virsliga · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: FK Liepaja vs FK Jelgava

Team pages: FK Liepaja · FK Jelgava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

FK Liepaja1.76

FK Jelgava1.05

1X2

53% 25% 22%

FK Liepaja Draw FK Jelgava

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Liepaja 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDDDL

FK Jelgava 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLDLL

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja 3–3–0 FK Jelgava (6 last)

FK Jelgava0-2FK Liepaja
FK Jelgava1-1FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja1-1FK Jelgava
FK Liepaja2-1FK Jelgava
FK Liepaja2-2FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava1-2FK Liepaja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Liepaja 1511 · FK Jelgava 1442

	FK Liepaja	Draw	FK Jelgava
Our model	53%	26%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Liepaja (rating 1511 vs 1442).
H2H favours FK Liepaja: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Liepaja	FK Jelgava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.9	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	4.10 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +7’	1.61	3.80	4.10
22:28 +7’	1.67▲	3.70▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Liepaja 3–3–0 FK Jelgava

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	0-2 HT 0-2	FK Liepaja
26/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja
12/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Jelgava
27/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Liepaja	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Jelgava
25/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-2 HT 2-2	FK Jelgava
02/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Liepaja

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	32	25	5	2	79	24	80
2	Riga FC	32	23	7	2	88	30	76
3	FK Auda	32	19	7	6	52	32	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43	46	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37	36	42
6	SK Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31	45	38
7	FK Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34	53	32
8	SC Grobinas	32	5	11	16	22	54	26
9	Tukums 2000	32	5	9	18	44	63	24
10	Ogre United	32	4	6	22	31	78	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Liepaja	FK Jelgava
FK Auda	2-3 L	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	1-2 L
Ogre United	2-2 D	3-2 W
RFS	0-0 D	2-4 L
Riga FC	3-2 W	0-1 L
SC Grobinas	3-1 W	0-0 D
SK Super Nova	2-1 W	0-1 L
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Liepaja (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Liepaja

WLWWLWDDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
19/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
11/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	11	5	D
07/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
31/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

FK Jelgava

LLLLWWLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-4	5	5	L
19/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
12/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
05/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
29/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
22/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
09/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
01/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
26/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
20/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Liepaja vs FK Jelgava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Liepaja win (53%). Probabilities: FK Liepaja 53%, draw 25%, FK Jelgava 22%.

How many goals are expected in FK Liepaja vs FK Jelgava?

The model expects 2.81 goals (FK Liepaja 1.76 · FK Jelgava 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Liepaja vs FK Jelgava?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.