Football · Latvia Virsliga · 25/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils

Team pages: FK Jelgava · BFC Daugavpils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

FK Jelgava1.11

BFC Daugavpils1.33

1X2

31% 27% 42%

FK Jelgava Draw BFC Daugavpils

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Jelgava 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDLLL

BFC Daugavpils 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDLDWW

Head-to-head

FK Jelgava 0–2–4 BFC Daugavpils (6 last)

BFC Daugavpils2-1FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava1-1BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils1-0FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava0-0BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils2-0FK Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils1-0FK Jelgava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Jelgava 1439 · BFC Daugavpils 1534

	FK Jelgava	Draw	BFC Daugavpils
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	32%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFC Daugavpils (rating 1439 vs 1534).
H2H favours BFC Daugavpils: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Jelgava	BFC Daugavpils
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.90▲	Bet365 2.90
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +3’	2.80	3.50	2.10
19:46 +6’	3.20▲	3.60▲	1.91▼
23:17 +5’	2.90▼	3.60	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jelgava 0–2–4 BFC Daugavpils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Jelgava
31/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-1 HT 0-0	BFC Daugavpils
16/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Jelgava
18/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	0-0 HT 0-0	BFC Daugavpils
27/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Jelgava
25/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Jelgava

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	33	26	5	2	81	24	83
2	Riga FC	33	24	7	2	90	31	79
3	FK Auda	33	19	7	7	53	34	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	46	46	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	39	37	45
6	SK Super Nova	33	11	5	17	32	47	38
7	FK Jelgava	33	8	8	17	34	56	32
8	SC Grobinas	33	6	11	16	25	56	29
9	Tukums 2000	33	5	9	19	44	65	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33	81	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Jelgava	BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja	0-3 L	0-0 D
RFS	2-4 L	1-2 L
Riga FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
SC Grobinas	0-0 D	0-1 L
SK Super Nova	0-1 L	0-0 D
Tukums 2000	4-1 W	2-0 W
Ogre United	3-2 W	2-1 W
FK Auda	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: BFC Daugavpils (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Jelgava

LLLWWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
11/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-4	5	5	L
19/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
12/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
05/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
29/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
22/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
09/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
01/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
26/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L

BFC Daugavpils

LWWDLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
11/10	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
19/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
13/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
29/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-1	10	5	W
26/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

According to our model, the most likely result is an BFC Daugavpils win (42%). Probabilities: FK Jelgava 31%, draw 27%, BFC Daugavpils 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model expects 2.44 goals (FK Jelgava 1.11 · BFC Daugavpils 1.33), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.