Football · Latvia Virsliga · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Ogre United vs FK Auda

Team pages: Ogre United · FK Auda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Ogre United1.08

FK Auda1.92

1X2

21% 23% 57%

Ogre United Draw FK Auda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ogre United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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FK Auda 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Ogre United 0–1–2 FK Auda (3 last)

FK Auda1-0Ogre United
FK Auda2-0Ogre United
Ogre United1-1FK Auda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ogre United 1411 · FK Auda 1570

	Ogre United	Draw	FK Auda
Our model	20%	24%	56%
Market	21%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1411 vs 1570).
H2H favours FK Auda: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ogre United	FK Auda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +22’	4.20	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre United 0–1–2 FK Auda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/09/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-0 HT 1-0	Ogre United
30/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-0 HT 1-0	Ogre United
17/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	33	26	5	2	81	24	83
2	Riga FC	33	24	7	2	90	31	79
3	FK Auda	33	19	7	7	53	34	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	46	46	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	39	37	45
6	SK Super Nova	33	11	5	17	32	47	38
7	FK Jelgava	33	8	8	17	34	56	32
8	SC Grobinas	33	6	11	16	25	56	29
9	Tukums 2000	33	5	9	19	44	65	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33	81	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ogre United	FK Auda
SC Grobinas	2-3 L	1-0 W
BFC Daugavpils	1-2 L	1-2 L
SK Super Nova	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Liepaja	2-2 D	3-2 W
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	3-0 W
RFS	0-3 L	1-1 D
FK Jelgava	2-3 L	1-0 W
Riga FC	1-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ogre United

DLLLLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-3	10	3	L
11/10	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
20/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
05/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	7	9	L
30/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
22/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	3	5	L
09/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-4	1-4	2	8	L
27/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-2	3	4	D

FK Auda

WWWDWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/10	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-2	1	4	W
20/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
16/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
21/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ogre United vs FK Auda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Auda win (57%). Probabilities: Ogre United 21%, draw 23%, FK Auda 57%.

How many goals are expected in Ogre United vs FK Auda?

The model expects 3 goals (Ogre United 1.08 · FK Auda 1.92), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ogre United vs FK Auda?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.