Football · Latvia Virsliga · 24/10, 12:00

Prediction: FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000

Team pages: FK Liepaja · Tukums 2000

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

FK Liepaja2.09

Tukums 20001.07

1X2

60% 21% 18%

FK Liepaja Draw Tukums 2000

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Liepaja 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDDDLW

Tukums 2000 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWLDLL

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja 3–2–1 Tukums 2000 (6 last)

Tukums 20002-1FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja3-0Tukums 2000
Tukums 20002-2FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja4-1Tukums 2000
Tukums 20001-3FK Liepaja
Tukums 20002-2FK Liepaja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Liepaja 1526 · Tukums 2000 1419

	FK Liepaja	Draw	Tukums 2000
Our model	60%	23%	18%
Market	61%	20%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Liepaja (rating 1526 vs 1419).
H2H favours FK Liepaja: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Liepaja	Tukums 2000
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	0.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	1.7 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.48▲	Bet365 1.48
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +3’	1.44	4.50	5.00
05:05 +3’	1.48▲	4.50	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Liepaja 3–2–1 Tukums 2000

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Liepaja
30/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	3-0 HT 2-0	Tukums 2000
17/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja
14/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	4-1 HT 2-1	Tukums 2000
25/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Liepaja
06/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-2 HT 2-1	FK Liepaja

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	33	26	5	2	81	24	83
2	Riga FC	33	24	7	2	90	31	79
3	FK Auda	33	19	7	7	53	34	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	46	46	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	39	37	45
6	SK Super Nova	33	11	5	17	32	47	38
7	FK Jelgava	33	8	8	17	34	56	32
8	SC Grobinas	33	6	11	16	25	56	29
9	Tukums 2000	33	5	9	19	44	65	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33	81	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Liepaja	Tukums 2000
FK Jelgava	3-0 W	1-4 L
FK Auda	2-3 L	0-3 L
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	0-2 L
Ogre United	2-2 D	2-1 W
RFS	0-0 D	0-2 L
Riga FC	3-2 W	0-2 L
SC Grobinas	3-1 W	1-1 D
SK Super Nova	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK Liepaja (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Liepaja

LWWLWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
12/10	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
19/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
11/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	11	5	D
07/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
31/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L

Tukums 2000

LWLLLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
10/10	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
20/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
10/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
05/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
29/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
21/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
08/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
02/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
27/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Liepaja win (60%). Probabilities: FK Liepaja 60%, draw 21%, Tukums 2000 18%.

How many goals are expected in FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000?

The model expects 3.16 goals (FK Liepaja 2.09 · Tukums 2000 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.