Football · Paraguay Women League · 25/07, 20:00
Prediction: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Sportivo Ameliano (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.62Total
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)3.31
Sportivo Ameliano (W)1.31
1X2
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Draw
Sportivo Ameliano (W)
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Sportivo Ameliano (W)
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
1–0
Sportivo Ameliano (W)
(1 last)
- Sportivo Ameliano (W)0-7Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1535 · Sportivo Ameliano (W) 1373
| Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | Draw | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 89% | 7% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.62 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1535 vs 1373).
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 2.2 | 0.7 / 4.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1 | 0.3 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.4 | 2.3 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.5 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1–0–0 Sportivo Ameliano (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 0-7 HT 0-2 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) |
Standings · Paraguay Women League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 65 | 6 | 35 |
| 2 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 29 |
| 3 | Club Guarani (W) | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Cerro Porteno (W) | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 30 | 19 |
| 6 | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 29 | 19 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 8 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 28 | 14 |
| 9 | 2 de Mayo (W) | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 41 | 10 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu (W) | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 34 | 9 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 6 |
| 12 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 2 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | Sportivo Ameliano (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro Porteno (W) | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Nacional-Humaita (W) | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| 2 de Mayo (W) | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 0-7 L | 0-10 L |
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | 1-3 L | 0-11 L |
| Rubio Nu (W) | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 1-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Club Guarani (W) | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 1-0 W | 2-6 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 8 L |
Better against common opponents: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
4-1 | 6-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 26/04 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/04 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
Sportivo Ameliano (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-7 | 0-11 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/07 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 13/07 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 28/06 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 2-6 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-5 | 0-10 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/05 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Sportivo Ameliano (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) win (83%). Probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 83%, draw 10%, Sportivo Ameliano (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Sportivo Ameliano (W)?
The model expects 4.62 goals (Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 3.31 · Sportivo Ameliano (W) 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Sportivo Ameliano (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.