Football · Paraguay Women League · 25/07, 22:15

Prediction: Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.71Total

Libertad Limpeno (W)3.36

Deportivo Recoleta (W)1.36

1X2

86% 8% 6%

Libertad Limpeno (W) Draw Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Libertad Limpeno (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWWWWW

Deportivo Recoleta (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLDLD

Head-to-head

Libertad Limpeno (W) 3–0 Deportivo Recoleta (W) (3 last)

Deportivo Recoleta (W)0-8Libertad Limpeno (W)
Deportivo Recoleta (W)0-5Libertad Limpeno (W)
Libertad Limpeno (W)14-0Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Libertad Limpeno (W) 1629 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1432

	Libertad Limpeno (W)	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	94%	4%	2%

Estimated total (ours) 4.71 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Limpeno (W) (rating 1629 vs 1432).
H2H favours Libertad Limpeno (W): 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Libertad Limpeno (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	4.6 / 0.5	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	2.1 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	1.9 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.01

X26.00

251.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.95

2 (+4.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.85

Under 4.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.01 → 1.01	Bet365 1.01
X	26.00 → 26.00	Bet365 26.00
2	51.00 → 51.00	Bet365 51.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:34 +12’	1.01	26.00	51.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Limpeno (W) 3–0–0 Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	0-8 HT 0-3	Libertad Limpeno (W)
10/05/25 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	0-5 HT 0-2	Libertad Limpeno (W)
05/03/25 Paraguay Women League	Libertad Limpeno (W)	14-0	Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	13	11	2	0	65	6	35
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	11	9	2	0	50	2	29
3	Club Guarani (W)	13	9	2	2	27	15	29
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	13	7	3	3	42	10	24
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	13	6	1	6	35	30	19
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	14	6	1	7	23	29	19
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	11	5	2	4	15	16	17
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	12	4	2	6	17	28	14
9	2 de Mayo (W)	13	3	1	9	19	41	10
10	Rubio Nu (W)	12	2	3	7	10	34	9
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	13	1	3	9	8	49	6
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	12	0	2	10	7	58	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Libertad Limpeno (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	11-0 W	6-2 W
Cerro Porteno (W)	1-0 W	0-7 L
Nacional-Humaita (W)	3-1 W	2-1 W
2 de Mayo (W)	11-1 W	1-2 L
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	9-0 W	0-3 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	3-1 W	0-1 L
Rubio Nu (W)	3-0 W	1-1 D
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	3-0 W	0-3 L
Club Guarani (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	8 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Libertad Limpeno (W) (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Libertad Limpeno (W)

DWWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	7-0	11-0	4	3	W
06/07	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/06	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	3-1	6	1	W
31/05	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	11-1	10	2	W
24/05	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	6-0	9-0	9	2	W
17/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
10/05	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
02/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	3-0	10	6	W
25/04	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	3-0	9	4	W
19/04	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D

Deportivo Recoleta (W)

LLLWLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
15/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
12/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
24/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-2	3	3	W
16/05	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-3	0-7	0	0	L
09/05	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
03/05	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-2	0	1	L
23/04	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-3	1	6	L
20/04	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Limpeno (W) win (86%). Probabilities: Libertad Limpeno (W) 86%, draw 8%, Deportivo Recoleta (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model expects 4.71 goals (Libertad Limpeno (W) 3.36 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.