Football · Paraguay Women League · 26/07, 00:30

Prediction: 2 de Mayo (W) vs Nacional-Humaita (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4Total

2 de Mayo (W)1.61

Nacional-Humaita (W)2.4

1X2

24% 22% 54%

2 de Mayo (W) Draw Nacional-Humaita (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

2 de Mayo (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Nacional-Humaita (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

2 de Mayo (W) 1–2–2 Nacional-Humaita (W) (5 last)

Nacional-Humaita (W)3-12 de Mayo (W)
Nacional-Humaita (W)2-02 de Mayo (W)
2 de Mayo (W)3-2Nacional-Humaita (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 2 de Mayo (W) 1454 · Nacional-Humaita (W) 1469

	2 de Mayo (W)	Draw	Nacional-Humaita (W)
Our model	25%	21%	55%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 4 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nacional-Humaita (W): 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	2 de Mayo (W)	Nacional-Humaita (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 3.3	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/11/56%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.75

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:34 +15’	3.75	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 2 de Mayo (W) 1–2–2 Nacional-Humaita (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Paraguay Women League	Nacional-Humaita (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	2 de Mayo (W)
28/04/25 Paraguay Women League	Nacional-Humaita (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	2 de Mayo (W)
03/02/25 Paraguay Women League	2 de Mayo (W)	3-2 HT 2-2	Nacional-Humaita (W)
24/08/24 Paraguay Women League	Nacional-Humaita (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	2 de Mayo (W)
09/06/24 Paraguay Women League	2 de Mayo (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Nacional-Humaita (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	13	11	2	0	65	6	35
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	11	9	2	0	50	2	29
3	Club Guarani (W)	13	9	2	2	27	15	29
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	13	7	3	3	42	10	24
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	13	6	1	6	35	30	19
6	Nacional-Humaita (W)	14	6	1	7	23	29	19
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	11	5	2	4	15	16	17
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	12	4	2	6	17	28	14
9	2 de Mayo (W)	13	3	1	9	19	41	10
10	Rubio Nu (W)	12	2	3	7	10	34	9
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	13	1	3	9	8	49	6
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	12	0	2	10	7	58	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	2 de Mayo (W)	Nacional-Humaita (W)
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion (W)	0-5 L	0-3 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	1-3 L	1-4 L
Libertad Limpeno (W)	1-11 L	1-3 L
Rubio Nu (W)	1-3 L	2-3 L
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	2-4 L	1-0 W
Club Guarani (W)	2-4 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta (W)	2-1 W	1-2 L
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional-Humaita (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

2 de Mayo (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
18/07	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
12/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
28/06	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
31/05	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-11	0	2	L
24/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-3	6	11	L
16/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	2-2	2-4	4	4	L
10/05	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	–	2-4	–	–	L
03/05	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	2-1	5	1	W
26/04	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Nacional-Humaita (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
05/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
27/06	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-3	1	1	L
31/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
23/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
17/05	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
09/05	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-2	9	1	L
03/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
26/04	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-2	1-6	1	1	L
19/04	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 2 de Mayo (W) vs Nacional-Humaita (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional-Humaita (W) win (54%). Probabilities: 2 de Mayo (W) 24%, draw 22%, Nacional-Humaita (W) 54%.

How many goals are expected in 2 de Mayo (W) vs Nacional-Humaita (W)?

The model expects 4 goals (2 de Mayo (W) 1.61 · Nacional-Humaita (W) 2.4), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in 2 de Mayo (W) vs Nacional-Humaita (W)?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.