Football · Poland III Liga · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Sparta Katowice vs Polonia Nysa

Team pages: Sparta Katowice · Polonia Nysa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Sparta Katowice1.84

Polonia Nysa1.03

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Sparta Katowice Draw Polonia Nysa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Katowice 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDWWW

Polonia Nysa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDDWLL

Head-to-head

Sparta Katowice 1–1–0 Polonia Nysa (2 last)

Polonia Nysa2-3Sparta Katowice
Sparta Katowice1-1Polonia Nysa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Katowice 1550 · Polonia Nysa 1461

	Sparta Katowice	Draw	Polonia Nysa
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1550 vs 1461).
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Katowice	Polonia Nysa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.7	3.2 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +28’	1.60	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Katowice 1–1–0 Polonia Nysa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	2-3 HT 1-1	Sparta Katowice
08/11/25 Poland III Liga	Sparta Katowice	1-1 HT 1-0	Polonia Nysa

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	6	2	1	3	9	13	7
12	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
14	Moravia Morawica	6	2	0	4	6	12	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Katowice	Polonia Nysa
Sleza Wroclaw	3-0 W	1-3 L
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 W	0-2 L
Stal Brzeg	1-1 D	3-2 W
KS Stilon Gorzow	2-1 W	1-1 D
Zaglebie Lubin II	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Katowice (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Katowice

WLWWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
22/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
19/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
14/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	8	W
01/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
24/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
16/05	Skra Czestochowa Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Polonia Nysa

LLLWLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
15/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
08/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
01/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
30/05	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
17/05	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	9	5	L
13/05	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Katowice vs Polonia Nysa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Katowice win (56%). Probabilities: Sparta Katowice 56%, draw 24%, Polonia Nysa 20%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Katowice vs Polonia Nysa?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Sparta Katowice 1.84 · Polonia Nysa 1.03), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Katowice vs Polonia Nysa?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.