Football · Poland III Liga · 12/09, 15:00
Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Mlawianka Mlawa
Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok II · Mlawianka Mlawa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.27Total
Jagiellonia Bialystok II2
Mlawianka Mlawa1.27
1X2
Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Draw
Mlawianka Mlawa
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Jagiellonia Bialystok II
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Mlawianka Mlawa
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Jagiellonia Bialystok II
4–2–0
Mlawianka Mlawa
(6 last)
- Mlawianka Mlawa0-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II
- Jagiellonia Bialystok II3-2Mlawianka Mlawa
- Mlawianka Mlawa2-3Jagiellonia Bialystok II
- Jagiellonia Bialystok II2-2Mlawianka Mlawa
- Jagiellonia Bialystok II3-0Mlawianka Mlawa
- Jagiellonia Bialystok II3-3Mlawianka Mlawa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1548 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1450
| Jagiellonia Bialystok II | Draw | Mlawianka Mlawa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jagiellonia Bialystok II (rating 1548 vs 1450).
- H2H favours Jagiellonia Bialystok II: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Jagiellonia Bialystok II | Mlawianka Mlawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 2.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.4 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 4–2–0 Mlawianka Mlawa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Poland III Liga | Mlawianka Mlawa | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Jagiellonia Bialystok II |
| 25/10/25 Poland III Liga | Jagiellonia Bialystok II | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Mlawianka Mlawa |
| 02/05/25 Poland III Liga | Mlawianka Mlawa | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Jagiellonia Bialystok II |
| 05/10/24 Poland III Liga | Jagiellonia Bialystok II | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Mlawianka Mlawa |
| 19/08/23 Poland III Liga | Jagiellonia Bialystok II | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Mlawianka Mlawa |
| 11/06/23 Poland III Liga | Jagiellonia Bialystok II | 3-3 HT 2-0 | Mlawianka Mlawa |
Standings · Poland III Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelmianka Chelm | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | KSZO Ostrowiec | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Czarni Polaniec | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | JKS Jaroslaw | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Wislanie Jaskowice | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 7 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Wisloka Debica | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Hetman Zamosc | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 8 |
| 12 | AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 13 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Krakow II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 16 | Moravia Morawica | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 6 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 4 |
| 18 | Pogon Sokol Lubaczow | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Jagiellonia Bialystok II | Mlawianka Mlawa |
|---|---|---|
| LKS Lomza | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| KTS Weszlo | 0-4 L | 1-5 L |
| Pelikan Lowicz | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Warta Sieradz | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Jagiellonia Bialystok II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jagiellonia Bialystok II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | LKS Lomza Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/08 | Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 07/08 | Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 31/07 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga |
3-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | CK Troszyn Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Mlawianka Mlawa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga |
0-3 | 3-5 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | LKS Lomza Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/08 | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 14 | 6 | L |
| 14/08 | KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | LKS Lomza Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Mlawianka Mlawa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok II win (53%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok II 53%, draw 23%, Mlawianka Mlawa 23%.
How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Mlawianka Mlawa?
The model expects 3.27 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok II 2 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1.27), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Mlawianka Mlawa?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.