Football · Poland III Liga · 13/09, 17:00

Prediction: Star Starachowice vs Wisloka Debica

Team pages: Star Starachowice · Wisloka Debica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Star Starachowice1.32

Wisloka Debica1.18

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Star Starachowice Draw Wisloka Debica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Star Starachowice 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLWDLD

Wisloka Debica 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Star Starachowice 2–3–1 Wisloka Debica (6 last)

Wisloka Debica0-0Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice1-1Wisloka Debica
Star Starachowice0-0Wisloka Debica
Wisloka Debica3-1Star Starachowice
Wisloka Debica0-1Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice1-0Wisloka Debica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Star Starachowice 1441 · Wisloka Debica 1462

	Star Starachowice	Draw	Wisloka Debica
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Star Starachowice: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Star Starachowice	Wisloka Debica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.77 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +5’	2.20	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +49’	2.12	3.19	2.95
07:20 +8’	2.20▲	3.23▲	2.78▼
13:02 +108’	2.18▼	3.27▲	2.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Star Starachowice 2–3–1 Wisloka Debica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Poland III Liga	Wisloka Debica	0-0 HT 0-0	Star Starachowice
20/09/25 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-1 HT 0-1	Wisloka Debica
04/04/25 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	0-0 HT 0-0	Wisloka Debica
06/09/24 Poland III Liga	Wisloka Debica	3-1 HT 2-0	Star Starachowice
01/06/24 Poland III Liga	Wisloka Debica	0-1 HT 0-1	Star Starachowice
11/11/23 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-0 HT 0-0	Wisloka Debica

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	8	7	1	0	14	2	22
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	8	5	3	0	14	6	18
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	8	5	1	2	13	7	16
4	Czarni Polaniec	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
5	JKS Jaroslaw	8	4	1	3	19	13	13
6	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	8	3	2	3	10	9	11
7	Wisla Krakow II	8	3	2	3	9	9	11
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	8	3	2	3	7	7	11
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	8	3	2	3	15	17	11
10	Wisloka Debica	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
11	Hetman Zamosc	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	8	1	5	2	8	9	8
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	8	2	1	5	9	13	7
15	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	8	2	1	5	8	13	7
16	Star Starachowice	7	1	3	3	5	11	6
17	Moravia Morawica	7	2	0	5	7	14	6
18	Korona Kielce II	8	1	2	5	20	25	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Star Starachowice	Wisloka Debica
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-0 D	2-1 W
JKS Jaroslaw	0-3 L	3-1 W
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	1-1 D	1-1 D
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Wisloka Debica (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Star Starachowice

LDLLDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
29/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
22/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
15/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
09/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
01/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	6	2	L
29/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	8	3	L
23/05	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
16/05	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L

Wisloka Debica

DLLDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
29/08	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
19/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
08/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
02/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
30/05	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
16/05	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Star Starachowice vs Wisloka Debica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Star Starachowice win (40%). Probabilities: Star Starachowice 40%, draw 27%, Wisloka Debica 33%.

How many goals are expected in Star Starachowice vs Wisloka Debica?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Star Starachowice 1.32 · Wisloka Debica 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs Wisloka Debica?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.