Football · Poland III Liga · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Kluczevia Stargard vs Elana Torun

Team pages: Kluczevia Stargard · Elana Torun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Kluczevia Stargard2.35

Elana Torun1.21

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Kluczevia Stargard Draw Elana Torun

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Kluczevia Stargard 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Elana Torun 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kluczevia Stargard 1–2–1 Elana Torun (4 last)

Elana Torun1-1Kluczevia Stargard
Kluczevia Stargard1-2Elana Torun
Kluczevia Stargard3-0Elana Torun
Elana Torun1-1Kluczevia Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kluczevia Stargard 1499 · Elana Torun 1442

	Kluczevia Stargard	Draw	Elana Torun
Our model	62%	20%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kluczevia Stargard (rating 1499 vs 1442).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kluczevia Stargard	Elana Torun
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	1.2 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.3	3.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +4’	1.45	4.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kluczevia Stargard 1–2–1 Elana Torun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	1-1 HT 0-0	Kluczevia Stargard
05/10/25 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	1-2 HT 1-2	Elana Torun
09/04/22 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	3-0	Elana Torun
05/09/21 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	1-1 HT 0-0	Kluczevia Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	7	7	0	0	13	1	21
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	7	4	3	0	13	6	15
3	Czarni Polaniec	7	5	0	2	12	8	15
4	JKS Jaroslaw	7	4	1	2	18	10	13
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	7	4	1	2	10	6	13
6	Wisla Krakow II	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
7	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	7	3	1	3	9	8	10
8	Wisloka Debica	7	3	1	3	8	9	10
9	Hetman Zamosc	7	2	3	2	11	10	9
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	7	2	2	3	5	6	8
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	7	2	2	3	11	15	8
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	7	2	2	3	10	14	8
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	7	1	4	2	6	7	7
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
15	Star Starachowice	7	1	3	3	5	11	6
16	Moravia Morawica	7	2	0	5	7	14	6
17	Korona Kielce II	7	1	1	5	18	23	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	7	1	1	5	6	12	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kluczevia Stargard	Elana Torun
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	1-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	2-0 W	2-3 L
Grom Nowy Staw	4-3 W	2-1 W
Gedania Gdansk	2-2 D	2-2 D
Lipno Steszew	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kluczevia Stargard (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kluczevia Stargard

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
23/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	–	–	W
19/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-2	2-2	3	7	D
15/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	9	1	W
08/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
30/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
23/05	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	10	L
16/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
13/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	8	4	L

Elana Torun

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
29/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	6	6	L
15/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
01/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
30/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
23/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	0	1	L
17/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	1	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kluczevia Stargard vs Elana Torun?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kluczevia Stargard win (62%). Probabilities: Kluczevia Stargard 62%, draw 21%, Elana Torun 17%.

How many goals are expected in Kluczevia Stargard vs Elana Torun?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Kluczevia Stargard 2.35 · Elana Torun 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kluczevia Stargard vs Elana Torun?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.