Football · Poland III Liga · 02/10, 19:00

Prediction: Polonia Nysa vs Miedz Legnica II

Team pages: Polonia Nysa · Miedz Legnica II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Polonia Nysa1.69

Miedz Legnica II2.28

1X2

28% 22% 50%

Polonia Nysa Draw Miedz Legnica II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Nysa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLLLLW

Miedz Legnica II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDWWWL

Head-to-head

Polonia Nysa 3–1–2 Miedz Legnica II (6 last)

Miedz Legnica II7-2Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa4-0Miedz Legnica II
Miedz Legnica II3-1Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa2-0Miedz Legnica II
Miedz Legnica II0-0Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa4-1Miedz Legnica II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Nysa 1438 · Miedz Legnica II 1502

	Polonia Nysa	Draw	Miedz Legnica II
Our model	28%	21%	51%
Market	27%	23%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miedz Legnica II (rating 1438 vs 1502).
H2H favours Polonia Nysa: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Nysa	Miedz Legnica II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	2.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2.5 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.90

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +6’	3.30	3.90	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Nysa 3–1–2 Miedz Legnica II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Poland III Liga	Miedz Legnica II	7-2 HT 1-0	Polonia Nysa
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	4-0 HT 2-0	Miedz Legnica II
03/06/23 Poland III Liga	Miedz Legnica II	3-1 HT 1-1	Polonia Nysa
05/11/22 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	2-0 HT 1-0	Miedz Legnica II
10/04/21 Poland III Liga	Miedz Legnica II	0-0 HT 0-0	Polonia Nysa
29/08/20 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	4-1 HT 1-1	Miedz Legnica II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	10	3	2	5	8	11	11
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
14	Star Starachowice	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Nysa	Miedz Legnica II
Sparta Katowice	0-4 L	0-2 L
Sleza Wroclaw	1-3 L	5-3 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	0-2 L	5-0 W
Stal Brzeg	3-2 W	4-2 W
KS Stilon Gorzow	1-1 D	2-2 D
Zaglebie Lubin II	2-2 D	2-3 L
Odra Bytom Odrzanski	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Miedz Legnica II (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Nysa

LDDWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
18/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	0	4	L
29/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
15/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
08/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
01/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	6	4	L

Miedz Legnica II

LLDLLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
19/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	2-3	5-3	10	6	W
12/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	3-0	5-0	5	2	W
05/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	3-2	4-2	–	–	W
28/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
22/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	3	7	L
19/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
14/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
01/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Nysa vs Miedz Legnica II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Miedz Legnica II win (50%). Probabilities: Polonia Nysa 28%, draw 22%, Miedz Legnica II 50%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Nysa vs Miedz Legnica II?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Polonia Nysa 1.69 · Miedz Legnica II 2.28), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Nysa vs Miedz Legnica II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.