Football · Poland III Liga · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: Olimpia Zambrow vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Team pages: Olimpia Zambrow · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Olimpia Zambrow2.01

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.97

1X2

39% 23% 38%

Olimpia Zambrow Draw Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Zambrow 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLDDLW

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Olimpia Zambrow 3–1–2 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (6 last)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki0-5Olimpia Zambrow
Olimpia Zambrow2-2Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Olimpia Zambrow1-2Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki0-1Olimpia Zambrow
Olimpia Zambrow4-2Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-0Olimpia Zambrow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Zambrow 1480 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1478

	Olimpia Zambrow	Draw	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Our model	40%	22%	38%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Olimpia Zambrow: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Zambrow	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.7	2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +3’	2.30	3.75	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Zambrow 3–1–2 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/06/24 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	0-5 HT 0-2	Olimpia Zambrow
18/11/23 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Zambrow	2-2 HT 0-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
08/04/23 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Zambrow	1-2 HT 1-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
03/09/22 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	0-1 HT 0-0	Olimpia Zambrow
17/04/21 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Zambrow	4-2 HT 1-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
20/09/20 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-0 HT 1-0	Olimpia Zambrow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
9	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
10	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Zambrow	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Wisla Plock II	4-3 W	1-2 L
Polonia Lidzbark	3-2 W	1-2 L
Olimpia Elblag	1-2 L	2-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpia Zambrow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
26/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	9	7	L
19/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
05/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	0	2	L
30/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	3	3	L
23/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	2	3	W
19/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-3	0-4	4	2	L

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

LWWWDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
18/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	11	7	L
11/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	11	6	L
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
14/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	4-0	5-2	7	1	W
08/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Zambrow vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Zambrow win (39%). Probabilities: Olimpia Zambrow 39%, draw 23%, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 38%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Zambrow vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Olimpia Zambrow 2.01 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.97), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Zambrow vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.