Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: KKS 1925 Kalisz vs Lech Poznan II

Team pages: KKS 1925 Kalisz · Lech Poznan II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

KKS 1925 Kalisz1.75

Lech Poznan II1.37

1X2

46% 25% 30%

KKS 1925 Kalisz Draw Lech Poznan II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

KKS 1925 Kalisz 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDWDDDWL

Lech Poznan II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWLDWD

Head-to-head

KKS 1925 Kalisz 2–3–1 Lech Poznan II (6 last)

Lech Poznan II1-1KKS 1925 Kalisz
KKS 1925 Kalisz2-1Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II0-4KKS 1925 Kalisz
KKS 1925 Kalisz2-2Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II1-0KKS 1925 Kalisz
KKS 1925 Kalisz2-2Lech Poznan II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KKS 1925 Kalisz 1507 · Lech Poznan II 1512

	KKS 1925 Kalisz	Draw	Lech Poznan II
Our model	45%	25%	29%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KKS 1925 Kalisz: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KKS 1925 Kalisz	Lech Poznan II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	3.8 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	2.63 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.05 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +16’	2.15	3.70	2.63
14:13 +6’	1.95▼	3.75▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:13 +37’	2.29	3.25	2.62
14:00 +19’	1.93▼	3.59▲	3.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KKS 1925 Kalisz 2–3–1 Lech Poznan II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/24 Poland II Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-1 HT 0-1	KKS 1925 Kalisz
20/10/23 Poland II Liga	KKS 1925 Kalisz	2-1 HT 2-1	Lech Poznan II
23/04/23 Poland II Liga	Lech Poznan II	0-4 HT 0-3	KKS 1925 Kalisz
18/09/22 Poland II Liga	KKS 1925 Kalisz	2-2 HT 2-1	Lech Poznan II
01/05/22 Poland II Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-0 HT 0-0	KKS 1925 Kalisz
23/10/21 Poland II Liga	KKS 1925 Kalisz	2-2 HT 1-1	Lech Poznan II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KKS 1925 Kalisz	Lech Poznan II
Blekitni Stargard	0-5 L	2-4 L
Chemik Bydgoszcz	1-1 D	1-1 D
Victoria Wrzesnia	3-3 D	5-2 W
Elana Torun	5-1 W	0-0 D
Notec Czarnkow	0-1 L	2-1 W
Unia Swarzedz	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KKS 1925 Kalisz

WDLDWDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-4	0-5	4	2	L
27/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
19/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
05/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
23/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
09/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Lech Poznan II

LWDLWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
12/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L
23/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-4	2-4	–	–	L
08/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	3-1	5-2	–	–	W
30/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KKS 1925 Kalisz vs Lech Poznan II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KKS 1925 Kalisz win (46%). Probabilities: KKS 1925 Kalisz 46%, draw 25%, Lech Poznan II 30%.

How many goals are expected in KKS 1925 Kalisz vs Lech Poznan II?

The model expects 3.12 goals (KKS 1925 Kalisz 1.75 · Lech Poznan II 1.37), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KKS 1925 Kalisz vs Lech Poznan II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.