Football · Poland III Liga · 11/10, 11:30

Prediction: Widzew Lodz II vs KTS Weszlo

Team pages: Widzew Lodz II · KTS Weszlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Widzew Lodz II1.59

KTS Weszlo1.7

1X2

35% 25% 40%

Widzew Lodz II Draw KTS Weszlo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Widzew Lodz II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLLLD

KTS Weszlo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Widzew Lodz II 1481 · KTS Weszlo 1564

	Widzew Lodz II	Draw	KTS Weszlo
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	35%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTS Weszlo (rating 1481 vs 1564).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Widzew Lodz II	KTS Weszlo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.70

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +1’	2.55	3.70	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
9	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
10	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Widzew Lodz II	KTS Weszlo
Olimpia Zambrow	4-3 W	1-3 L
Polonia Lidzbark	4-1 W	1-1 D
Olimpia Elblag	2-0 W	2-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-0 D	1-0 W
Zabkovia Zabki	0-1 L	2-0 W
CK Troszyn	5-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Widzew Lodz II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Widzew Lodz II

WLDWWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	0	7	D
20/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	2-3	3-6	–	–	L
11/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	2	2	L
06/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
30/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	5	3	W
23/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
19/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
15/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
02/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	3-0	5-1	6	6	W

KTS Weszlo

WWWWDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
26/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
05/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
29/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
23/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	1	5	W
19/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
14/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	2-0	5-1	5	5	W
08/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Widzew Lodz II vs KTS Weszlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KTS Weszlo win (40%). Probabilities: Widzew Lodz II 35%, draw 25%, KTS Weszlo 40%.

How many goals are expected in Widzew Lodz II vs KTS Weszlo?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Widzew Lodz II 1.59 · KTS Weszlo 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Widzew Lodz II vs KTS Weszlo?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.