Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: KSZO Ostrowiec vs AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

Team pages: KSZO Ostrowiec · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

KSZO Ostrowiec2.41

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj0.89

1X2

71% 18% 12%

KSZO Ostrowiec Draw AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

KSZO Ostrowiec 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDWDLD

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KSZO Ostrowiec 1536 · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1476

	KSZO Ostrowiec	Draw	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj
Our model	70%	19%	11%
Market	71%	17%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KSZO Ostrowiec (rating 1536 vs 1476).
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KSZO Ostrowiec	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.4	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	6.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.25

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.27▼	Pinn 1.27 ★
X	4.20 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
2	5.50 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 13.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:45 +7’	1.44	4.20	5.50
09:14 +9’	1.45▲	4.33▲	5.25▼
10:54 +3’	1.27▼	5.25▲	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:13 +37’	1.31	4.62	6.81
09:03 +21’	1.27▼	4.99▲	6.99▲
10:56 +1’	1.27▲	4.93▼	6.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KSZO Ostrowiec	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj
Wisla Krakow II	1-0 W	3-0 W
Naprzod Jedrzejow	2-2 D	1-4 L
Moravia Morawica	4-0 W	2-1 W
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-0 W	1-2 L
Wislanie Jaskowice	2-2 D	2-1 W
Korona Kielce II	3-2 W	1-4 L
Star Starachowice	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KSZO Ostrowiec (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KSZO Ostrowiec

DWDWWDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	15	3	L
19/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
05/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	6	W
23/08	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/08	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	7	D
14/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	5	5	W
09/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

WLLDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	8	5	L
19/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	10	9	L
06/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
29/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	10	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KSZO Ostrowiec vs AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KSZO Ostrowiec win (71%). Probabilities: KSZO Ostrowiec 71%, draw 18%, AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 12%.

How many goals are expected in KSZO Ostrowiec vs AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj?

The model expects 3.31 goals (KSZO Ostrowiec 2.41 · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 0.89), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KSZO Ostrowiec vs AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.