Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Warta Gorzow vs Polonia Nysa

Team pages: Warta Gorzow · Polonia Nysa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Warta Gorzow1.7

Polonia Nysa1.05

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Warta Gorzow Draw Polonia Nysa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Gorzow 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDWLDD

Polonia Nysa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Warta Gorzow 1–5–0 Polonia Nysa (6 last)

Warta Gorzow1-0Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa1-1Warta Gorzow
Polonia Nysa1-1Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow2-2Polonia Nysa
Warta Gorzow0-0Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa1-1Warta Gorzow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Gorzow 1513 · Polonia Nysa 1436

	Warta Gorzow	Draw	Polonia Nysa
Our model	51%	26%	22%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Gorzow (rating 1513 vs 1436).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Gorzow	Polonia Nysa
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.75

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +26’	1.70	3.75	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Gorzow 1–5–0 Polonia Nysa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	1-0 HT 1-0	Polonia Nysa
17/10/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	1-1 HT 1-0	Warta Gorzow
25/03/23 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	1-1 HT 1-1	Warta Gorzow
20/08/22 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	2-2 HT 0-0	Polonia Nysa
15/05/21 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	0-0 HT 0-0	Polonia Nysa
10/10/20 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	1-1 HT 0-1	Warta Gorzow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Gorzow	Polonia Nysa
Sparta Katowice	1-1 D	0-4 L
Sleza Wroclaw	1-1 D	1-3 L
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	1-4 L	0-2 L
Stal Brzeg	1-0 W	3-2 W
KS Stilon Gorzow	1-1 D	1-1 D
Zaglebie Lubin II	0-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Gorzow

WDDWLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
26/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
12/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
22/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	5	2	W

Polonia Nysa

DDWLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
26/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
18/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	0	4	L
29/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
15/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
08/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Gorzow vs Polonia Nysa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Gorzow win (52%). Probabilities: Warta Gorzow 52%, draw 25%, Polonia Nysa 23%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Gorzow vs Polonia Nysa?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Warta Gorzow 1.7 · Polonia Nysa 1.05), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Gorzow vs Polonia Nysa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.