Football · Poland III Liga · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok II · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Jagiellonia Bialystok II1.93

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1.67

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Jagiellonia Bialystok II Draw MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 3–1–2 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (6 last)

Jagiellonia Bialystok II5-1MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki3-2Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II5-2MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1-0Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II1-0MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki2-2Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1496 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1486

	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	Draw	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Our model	43%	24%	33%
Market	44%	23%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jagiellonia Bialystok II: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:41 +6’	2.05	3.80	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 3–1–2 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	5-1 HT 3-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
20/09/25 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	3-2 HT 1-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
23/11/24 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	5-2 HT 1-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
03/08/24 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-0 HT 1-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
17/03/24 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-0 HT 0-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
23/08/23 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	2-2 HT 1-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
LKS Lodz II	2-3 L	2-7 L
Mlawianka Mlawa	7-4 W	4-2 W
LKS Lomza	2-1 W	4-0 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-1 D	2-1 W
KTS Weszlo	0-4 L	0-1 L
Pelikan Lowicz	3-0 W	1-4 L
Warta Sieradz	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jagiellonia Bialystok II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
25/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
19/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
12/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	2-2	7-4	6	5	W
05/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
29/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
19/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	5	D

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-7	7	1	L
03/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
25/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
18/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
04/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
29/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok II win (43%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok II 43%, draw 24%, MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 33%.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1.93 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1.67), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.