Football · Poland III Liga · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Hetman Zamosc

Team pages: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj1.62

Hetman Zamosc1.85

1X2

33% 24% 43%

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Draw Hetman Zamosc

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Hetman Zamosc 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1465 · Hetman Zamosc 1511

	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Draw	Hetman Zamosc
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hetman Zamosc (rating 1465 vs 1511).
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Hetman Zamosc
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	1.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0	1.5 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:32 +7’	2.70	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Hetman Zamosc
KSZO Ostrowiec	0-5 L	2-1 W
Wisla Krakow II	3-0 W	3-3 D
Naprzod Jedrzejow	1-4 L	2-4 L
Moravia Morawica	2-1 W	2-1 W
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-2 L	2-4 L
Wislanie Jaskowice	2-1 W	0-1 L
Korona Kielce II	1-4 L	2-2 D
Star Starachowice	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hetman Zamosc (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
04/10	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	8	5	L
19/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	10	9	L
06/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
29/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-4	–	–	L

Hetman Zamosc

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
19/09	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-3	–	–	D
12/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
05/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
22/08	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-2	2-2	11	2	D
15/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Hetman Zamosc?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hetman Zamosc win (43%). Probabilities: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 33%, draw 24%, Hetman Zamosc 43%.

How many goals are expected in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Hetman Zamosc?

The model expects 3.47 goals (AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1.62 · Hetman Zamosc 1.85), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Hetman Zamosc?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.