Football · Poland III Liga · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Wda Swiecie vs Flota Swinoujscie

Team pages: Wda Swiecie · Flota Swinoujscie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Wda Swiecie1.94

Flota Swinoujscie1.37

1X2

50% 24% 26%

Wda Swiecie Draw Flota Swinoujscie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wda Swiecie 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLLLW

Flota Swinoujscie 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Wda Swiecie 2–2 Flota Swinoujscie (4 last)

Flota Swinoujscie0-3Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie2-1Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie2-1Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie0-1Flota Swinoujscie

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wda Swiecie 1527 · Flota Swinoujscie 1422

	Wda Swiecie	Draw	Flota Swinoujscie
Our model	50%	24%	26%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wda Swiecie (rating 1527 vs 1422).
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wda Swiecie	Flota Swinoujscie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 6.4	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:50 +5’	1.80	3.75	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wda Swiecie 2–0–2 Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	0-3 HT 0-0	Wda Swiecie
18/10/25 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	2-1 HT 1-0	Flota Swinoujscie
08/03/25 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-1 HT 1-0	Wda Swiecie
17/08/24 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	0-1 HT 0-0	Flota Swinoujscie

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wda Swiecie	Flota Swinoujscie
Elana Torun	2-1 W	0-1 L
Notec Czarnkow	2-1 W	0-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	1-0 W	0-2 L
Grom Nowy Staw	4-2 W	0-5 L
Gedania Gdansk	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Wda Swiecie (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wda Swiecie

DWWWWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	1	7	W
10/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
03/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	9	5	L
19/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
04/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	7	W
28/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	2	W
23/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Flota Swinoujscie

WWDLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
03/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
19/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-5	0-5	4	5	L
12/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
15/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wda Swiecie vs Flota Swinoujscie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wda Swiecie win (50%). Probabilities: Wda Swiecie 50%, draw 24%, Flota Swinoujscie 26%.

How many goals are expected in Wda Swiecie vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Wda Swiecie 1.94 · Flota Swinoujscie 1.37), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wda Swiecie vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.