Football · Poland III Liga · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Widzew Lodz II

Team pages: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki · Widzew Lodz II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.81

Widzew Lodz II1.77

1X2

39% 24% 37%

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Draw Widzew Lodz II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Widzew Lodz II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2–0 Widzew Lodz II (2 last)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki3-1Widzew Lodz II
Widzew Lodz II0-2Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1481 · Widzew Lodz II 1449

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Draw	Widzew Lodz II
Our model	39%	24%	37%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Widzew Lodz II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.2	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:39 +7’	2.30	3.75	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2–0–0 Widzew Lodz II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	3-1 HT 2-1	Widzew Lodz II
21/09/25 Poland III Liga	Widzew Lodz II	0-2 HT 0-2	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Widzew Lodz II
Olimpia Zambrow	0-3 L	4-3 W
Polonia Lidzbark	1-2 L	4-1 W
Olimpia Elblag	2-1 W	2-0 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-2 L	0-0 D
Zabkovia Zabki	2-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Widzew Lodz II (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
03/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
18/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	11	7	L
11/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	11	6	L
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
14/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	4-0	5-2	7	1	W

Widzew Lodz II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
03/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	0	7	D
20/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	2-3	3-6	–	–	L
11/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	2	2	L
06/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
30/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	5	3	W
23/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
19/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
15/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Widzew Lodz II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki win (39%). Probabilities: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 39%, draw 24%, Widzew Lodz II 37%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Widzew Lodz II?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.81 · Widzew Lodz II 1.77), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Widzew Lodz II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.