Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 18:00

Prediction: Warta Sieradz vs Wisla Plock II

Team pages: Warta Sieradz · Wisla Plock II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Warta Sieradz1.77

Wisla Plock II1.41

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Warta Sieradz Draw Wisla Plock II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Sieradz 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWWDDL

Wisla Plock II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDLWLW

Head-to-head

Warta Sieradz 0–2–2 Wisla Plock II (4 last)

Warta Sieradz1-1Wisla Plock II
Wisla Plock II2-1Warta Sieradz
Wisla Plock II3-0Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz1-1Wisla Plock II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Sieradz 1497 · Wisla Plock II 1511

	Warta Sieradz	Draw	Wisla Plock II
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Wisla Plock II: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Sieradz	Wisla Plock II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.2	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.07 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +4’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +7’	1.95	3.49	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Sieradz 0–2–2 Wisla Plock II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	1-1 HT 1-0	Wisla Plock II
25/10/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	2-1 HT 0-1	Warta Sieradz
30/03/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	3-0 HT 2-0	Warta Sieradz
31/08/24 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	1-1 HT 0-1	Wisla Plock II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Sieradz	Wisla Plock II
Wigry Suwalki	1-3 L	0-1 L
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	1-1 D	2-3 L
Olimpia Zambrow	2-2 D	3-4 L
Polonia Lidzbark	2-1 W	1-1 D
CK Troszyn	4-1 W	2-1 W
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	2-2 D	2-1 W
LKS Lodz II	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Sieradz

WDWLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
03/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
19/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
12/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
04/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	6	2	W
29/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	8	2	L
19/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
15/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Wisla Plock II

DDLWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
03/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
25/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
12/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
29/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	3-0	5-3	5	7	W
23/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	7	3	L
19/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	8	10	D
15/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Sieradz vs Wisla Plock II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Sieradz win (45%). Probabilities: Warta Sieradz 45%, draw 25%, Wisla Plock II 30%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Sieradz vs Wisla Plock II?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Warta Sieradz 1.77 · Wisla Plock II 1.41), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Wisla Plock II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.